Infectious diseasesHow the Warsaw Ghetto Beat Typhus
In 1941, the Nazi forces in Poland crammed more than 450,000 inmates into a confined 3.4 km2 area known as the Warsaw Ghetto. The conditions were wretched, and the level of sanitation and hygiene appalling. As many as 120,000 ghetto inmates were infected by Typhus, with up to 30,000 dying directly from it – but in October 1941, as a harsh winter was beginning and just as Typhus rates would be expected to skyrocket, the epidemic curve suddenly and unexpectedly nose-dived to extinction. At the time, many thought it was a miracle or irrational. Now, scientists explain how it was done. “The tragedy, of course,” says the lead researcher, “is that almost all of those lives saved through these sacrifices, discipline and community programs would soon end in extermination at the Nazi death camps.”
New modelling of Typhus infections in the Warsaw Ghetto during WWII reveals how public health interventions eradicated the disease.
Through state-of-the-art mathematical modelling and historical documents, the study points to community health programs and social distancing practices as the most likely explanations for the epidemic’s sudden and mysterious collapse, which was hailed by survivors at the time as a miracle.
The historical analysis underscores the critical importance of the cooperation and active recruitment of communities in efforts to defeat epidemics and pandemics such as COVID-19, rather than relying too heavily on government regulation.
Mathematician and disease modeler Professor Lewi Stone from RMIT University and Tel Aviv University led the study published in Science Advances, with collaborators from Hong Kong, Amsterdam and Berlin.
In 1941, the Nazi forces in Poland crammed more than 450,000 inmates into a confined 3.4 km2 area known as the Warsaw Ghetto.
“With poor conditions, rampant starvation and a population density 5 to 10 times higher than any city in the world today, the Warsaw Ghetto presented the perfect breeding ground for bacteria to spread Typhus and it ripped through the mainly Jewish population there like a wild fire. Of course, the Nazis were well aware this would happen,” Stone says.
RMIT notes that as many as 120,000 ghetto inmates were infected by Typhus, with up to 30,000 dying directly from it and many more from starvation or a combination of both.
Stone says it was a historically documented case of disease being used as a weapon of war and as a pretext for genocide.
“Then, in October 1941, as a harsh winter was beginning and just as Typhus rates would be expected to skyrocket, the epidemic curve suddenly and unexpectedly nose-dived to extinction,” he says.
“It was inexplicable at the time and many thought it was a miracle or irrational.”
The team’s mathematical modelling designed with theoretical ecologist Dr. Yael Artzy-Randrup (University of Amsterdam) together with modelling and statistical analysis carried out by Dr. Daihai He (Hong Kong Polytechnic University), shows the epidemic was in fact on track to become 2 to 3 times larger and peak in the middle of winter, just before it disappeared.
So, what happened?
How the Ghetto beat Typhus
Stone says the steady decline in disease transmission rates most likely reflects the success of behavioral interventions.
“Fortunately, many of the anti-epidemic activities and interventions are documented and it turns out that Warsaw Ghetto had many experienced doctors and specialists,” he says.
