Impact of Sea Level Rise on Property

Using 2000 as the mean for South Florida, sea level is projected to rise 10 to 17 inches by 2040; 21 to 54 inches by 2070; and, 40 to 136 inches by 2110 according to the Southeast Florida Compact. Thus far, projections have increased with each update to their modeling. Every inch of sea level rise brings greater exposure to people and their properties. Once the tide line rises, more assets are covered in its wake. At less than 3 feet above the high tide line, more than 2,000 square miles lie in the flood zone along with an estimated $145 billion in vanished housing; at 6 feet above that tide line the amount of exposed land jumps to more than 4,000 square miles and $544 billion in lost property value. Roughly half of the most vulnerable cities, counties or metros are located in Florida. Miami-Dade County leads the crowd. Seven of the 10 at-risk cities in the U.S. also are located in Florida, highlighted again by South Florida (Hialeah, Miami Beach, Plantation, Miramar and Fort Lauderdale).

“This report aims to open a renewed dialog about how local governments across South Florida and the nation can better respond to sea level rise. A stronger regional response is needed to plan for, prepare and invest in infrastructure to address a three-foot rise in sea by 2075,” said John L. Renne, Ph.D., co-author, a professor and director of FAU’s CUES. “Moreover, the region needs to join efforts in California, London and other regions to become carbon neutral by 2050. Voluntary policies have not worked, thus we need a regional governance structure to better incentivize this reduction in carbon emissions and adapting infrastructure through economic incentives and regulations in order to preserve a future in South Florida for future generations.”

FAU’s CUES has assembled and curated a collection of web-based planning tools for decision makers and the public (http://cues.fau.edu/planningtools/), enabling stakeholders to evaluate sea level rise, urban livability, and quality of life. One key tool is the Sea Level Sketch Planning Tool, developed by the University of Florida’s GeoPlan Center (https://sls.geoplan.ufl.edu). The tool is specifically designed to help identify and highlight land and infrastructure that is vulnerable to current and future flooding. Other tools in the CUES collection include material developed by federal agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for evaluating climate impacts on specific assets.

“We still need tools and policies that allow us to adopt resilient infrastructure plans and investments,” said Renne. “We should also investigate programs that allow citizens and decision makers to conduct cost-benefit analyses for investment strategies.”

A good deal of the ongoing research on sea level rise has focused on Miami-Dade and the Florida Keys. Localities within Miami-Dade have already begun to act, mostly through hard engineering, but other techniques, considered as “blue and green infrastructure,” are gradually taking hold. The researchers caution that the Florida Keys seems to be lagging behind its ability to deal with gargantuan problems and, if not enough is done soon enough, the island chain could face an irrevocable pattern of inundation by 2050.

“For most families, their home is the largest single asset they own, and even for renters, housing is their largest expenditure. Protecting those assets is critical to every American family and in South Florida, the risk is no longer theoretical,” said Josh Sawislak, AICP, co-author, an affiliate professional at FAU’s CUES, principal of Clio Strategies, LLC, and an internationally recognized expert on climate and disaster resilience. “Recent data on increased flood risk to communities in South Florida and across the nation make the discussion of how we protect our communities even more important. To address flood risk, we need to look at land use and governance — how we organize our communities to manage these risks and protect our wealth and homes.”

According to FAU’s Center for Environmental Studies, 72 percent of Floridians are in favor of teaching climate change in public schools; another 55 percent believe climate change is real and caused by human activity, and almost half (47 percent) are willing to pay $10 per month to strengthen the state’s weather related infrastructure (2019).

“Despite widespread awareness of sea level rise in South Florida, at-risk property continues to be purchased at premium prices and built upon without adequate consideration,” said Renne. “There are a number of unanswered questions that we need to address to mitigate or adapt to catastrophic events. One matter is clear, the actions we take now will have a significant impact on the lives of future generations in South Florida.”