ARGUMENT: China & IranThe Prospect of China-Iran Axis

Published 10 August 2020

What will ties between China and Iran look like in the future? Amos Yadlin and Ari Heistein write that a recently leaked draft of a partnership agreement between Beijing and Tehran may provide some insight. The document outlines a framework for increased Chinese investment in Iran, strategic cooperation, and Iran’s integration in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The potential agreement has rattled some in Washington, stoking concerns that America’s assertive foreign policy has solidified a dangerous alliance between key, anti-American powers in East Asia and the Middle East.

What will ties between China and Iran look like in the future? Amos Yadlin and Ari Heistein write in War on the Rocks that arecently leaked draft of a partnership agreement between Beijing and Tehran may provide some insight. The document outlines a framework for increased Chinese investment in Iran, strategic cooperation, and Iran’s integration in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The potential agreement has rattled some in Washington, stoking concerns that America’s assertive foreign policy has solidified a dangerous alliance between key, anti-American powers in East Asia and the Middle East.

The add:

The unsigned draft agreement was likely leaked by the Iranian government — the document is in Farsi and Tehran seemed eager to publicize it. In contrast, Beijing appears hesitant to address the deal in public, let alone issue any kind of endorsement. China’s unenthusiastic reaction may be the result of annoyance at Iran’s leaking of the document, a cost-benefit calculation that publicly endorsing it could further poison China’s vital relationship with Washington, and/or concerns that it would inflict reputational harm on Beijing among its other partners in the Middle East. Nevertheless, China has not renounced the document either.

If this deal is ultimately signed and implemented, then it could represent a major acceleration of two current trends: China’s growing investment in the Middle East and the consolidation of an authoritarian anti-American bloc of countries. However, the act of signing such an agreement does not eliminate existing constraints in Sino-Iranian cooperation, including Iran’s unappealing investment environment, China’s historic unwillingness to invest in a country purely for geopolitical ends, and limitations on what each can offer the other in coping with their shared foe — the United States. These obstacles will make the majority of the joint energy and infrastructure projects listed in the document, reportedly valued at around $400 billion over 25 years, difficult to realize. In short, policymakers should pay close attention to Sino-Iranian ties — but they shouldn’t overreact.