Might Technology Tip the Global Scales?

If the United States develops the capacity to locate these mobile nuclear assets quickly, “that could change the battlefield outcome and hold China’s arsenal at risk,” says Chang. “And if China feels it isn’t able to protect its nuclear arsenal, it might have an incentive to use it or lose it.”

In subsequent research, Chang will examine the impacts of AI on cybersecurity and on autonomous weaponry such as drones.

A Start in Policy Debate
Pondering international and security issues began early for Chang. “I developed a big interest in these subjects through policy debate, which motivated me to read hundreds of pages and gave me a breadth and depth of knowledge on disparate topics,” he says. “Debate exposed me to the study of military affairs and got me interested in America’s role in the world generally.”

Chang’s engagement with policy deepened at Princeton University, where he earned his BA summa cum laude from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. While he knew he wanted to focus on foreign policy of some kind, his special focus on China came fortuitously: He was assigned to a junior seminar where students developed a working paper on “Building the Rule of Law in China.” He took a series of Mandarin language courses, and produced a thesis comparing 19th century American nationalist behavior with modern-day Chinese nationalism.

By graduation, Chang knew he wanted to aim for a career in national security and policy by way of a graduate school education. But he sought real-world seasoning first: a two-year stint as an analyst at Long Term Strategy Group, a Washington defense research firm. At LTSG, Chang facilitated wargames simulating Asia-Pacific conflicts, and wrote monographs on Chinese foreign policy, nuclear signaling, and island warfare doctrine.

Bridging a Divide
Today, he is applying this expertise. “I’m trying to use my computer science understanding to bridge the gap between people working at a highly technical level of AI, and folks in security studies who are perhaps less familiar with the technology,” he says. Propelled by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship and a research fellowship with the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Chang continues with his simulations and is beginning to write up some of his analysis. He thinks some of his findings might prove surprising.

“There is an assumption — based on China’s vast collection of personal data and surveillance of citizens — that AI is the means by which China will leapfrog the U.S. in military power,” says Chang. “But I think this is wrong.” In fact, the United States “has much more military-relevant data than China does, because it collects on so many platforms — in the deep ocean, and from satellites — that are a holdover from fighting the Soviet Union.”

Among Chang’s research challenges: the fact that AI is not a mature technology and hasn’t been fully implemented in modern militaries. “There’s not yet much literature or data to draw on when assessing its impact,” he notes. Also, he would like to nail down a good definition of AI for his field. “With current definitions of AI, thinking about its influence is a bit like investigating the effect of explosives on international affairs: you could be talking about nuclear weapons or dynamite and gunpowder,” he says. “In my dissertation I’m attempting a scoping of AI so that it’s more amenable to good political science analysis.”

Getting these ideas down on paper will be Chang’s job for at least the next year. The writing occasionally feels like a struggle. “Some days I’ll sit there and it won’t come out, and other days, after a long walk along the Charles, I can write all day, and it feels good.”

Leda Zimmerman is a writer and editor interested in science and technology. This article is reprinted with permission of MIT News