PERSPECTIVE: Post election disinformationSix Disinformation Threats in the Post-Election Period
The problem of disinformation in the run-up to the 2020 election is well covered in the news media. Justin Hendrix writes that what hasn’t been as widely covered is the disinformation campaigns that will likely come right after Americans vote on 3 November.
The problem of disinformation in the run-up to the 2020 election is well covered in the news media. Justin Hendrix writes in Just Security that what hasn’t been as widely covered is the disinformation campaigns that will likely come right after Americans vote on 3 November.
But perhaps it’s not the runup to the election we should be chiefly concerned about. In this cycle the election itself may not be the greatest point of leverage for manipulators. Indeed, the dynamics of this race are fairly stable. It appears President Donald Trump will not win the election outright — putting your time and effort to change that outcome is arguably a waste for any motivated actor. But the post-election period offers riches never imagined — a nonzero chance at subverting a democratic outcome, sure — but an even better chance to push more Americans to extremes than ever before. Like a coin-pusher game in a rundown convenience store — if you insert your quarter at just the right moment you can push quite the pile over the edge. Except here, it won’t be random luck but a more controllable environment.
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The greatest point of leverage bad actors — foreign or domestic — will have is in exploiting the possibility that we might not know who the winner of the election is on the evening of November 3rd, and possibly for some days afterwards, as states cope with a much higher volume of mail-in ballots than in previous years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Every state has its own rules for counting ballots — some do not begin before Election Day, and some not until polls close. Based on prior cycles, it is natural to assume most voters expect to have an officially certified winner of the presidential election within a couple of days after the election. A longer-than-expected wait may breed distrust in the result- at a week or more nerves will certainly fray. If there is not a clear winner within a week — by 10 November for example — a vulnerable country could be plunged into a serious crisis of confidence. It’s hard to imagine an interregnum of more than a month, as happened in 2000.
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This post-election period is certain to be a unique one — and the few weeks before the inauguration of the next president may well significantly determine the trajectory of the politics of this country for many years to come. Whether that trajectory will turn on disinformation and violence remains to be seen.
