ARGUMENT: New American radicalismThe Capitol Rioters Aren’t Like Other Extremists
Following the 6 January storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters who were incited by him to attack Congress in order to prevent the certification of Joe Biden as the winner of the 3 November election, many were quick to assert that the rioters were members of extremist groups such as Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Boogaloo Boys, or white supremacists. Robert Pape and Keven Ruby, both from the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), write that the demographic, educational, and socio-economic profile of the rioters is much more disturbing: a close analysis of those arrested by the police “suggests a different and potentially far more dangerous problem: a new kind of violent mass movement in which more ‘normal’ Trump supporters—middle-class and, in many cases, middle-aged people without obvious ties to the far right—joined with extremists in an attempt to overturn a presidential election.” They add: “What’s clear is that the Capitol riot revealed a new force in American politics—not merely a mix of right-wing organizations, but a broader mass political movement that has violence at its core and draws strength even from places where Trump supporters are in the minority.”
On 6 January, a mob of about 800 stormed the U.S. Capitol in an effort to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden as the winner of the 3 November election. Robert Pape and Keven Ruby write in The Atlantic thatmany people made quick assumptions regarding who the insurrectionists were. A number of the rioters, for example, prominently displayed symbols of right-wing militias, so some experts called for a crackdown on such groups.
Pape and Ruby note that violence organized and carried out by far-right militant organizations is disturbing, but it at least falls into a category familiar to law enforcement and the general public. A closer look at the people suspected of taking part in the Capitol riot, however,
suggests a different and potentially far more dangerous problem: a new kind of violent mass movement in which more “normal” Trump supporters—middle-class and, in many cases, middle-aged people without obvious ties to the far right—joined with extremists in an attempt to overturn a presidential election.
To understand the events of January 6 and devise solutions to prevent their recurrence, Americans need a fine-grained comprehension of who attacked the Capitol. Understanding the ideology and beliefs of those who commit political violence is important, but so is knowing what kind of people they are and what their lives are like.
Pape and Ruby, both from the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), led a research by more than twenty CPOST researchers who examined the demographics, socioeconomic traits, and militant-group affiliations (if any) of the 235 people who have so far been arrested by the FBI, Capitol Police, and Washington, D.C. for offenses related to the 6 January insurrection. The focused especially on 193 individuals who have been charged with being inside the Capitol building or with breaking through barriers to enter the Capitol grounds.
Subject to qualifications and caveats detailed in the article, Paper and Ruby write that Four findings stand out.
· First, the attack on the Capitol was unmistakably an act of political violence, not merely an exercise in vandalism or trespassing amid a disorderly protest that had spiraled out of control. The overwhelming reason for action, cited again and again in court documents, was that arrestees were following Trump’s orders to keep Congress from certifying Joe Biden as the presidential-election winner.
· Second, a large majority of suspects in the Capitol riot have no connection to existing far-right militias, white-nationalist gangs, or other established violent organizations.
· Third, the demographic profile of the suspected Capitol rioters is different from that of past right-wing extremists. The average age of the arrestees we studied is 40. Two-thirds are 35 or older, and 40 percent are business owners or hold white-collar jobs. Unlike the stereotypical extremist, many of the alleged participants in the Capitol riot have a lot to lose. They work as CEOs, shop owners, doctors, lawyers, IT specialists, and accountants. Strikingly, court documents indicate that only 9 percent are unemployed.
· Fourth, most of the insurrectionists do not come from deep-red strongholds. People familiar with America’s political geography might imagine the Capitol rioters as having marinated in places where they are unlikely to encounter anyone from the opposite side of the political spectrum. Yet of those arrested for their role in the Capitol riot, more than half came from counties that Biden won; one-sixth came from counties that Trump won with less than 60 percent of the vote.
Pape and Ruby conclude:
What’s clear is that the Capitol riot revealed a new force in American politics—not merely a mix of right-wing organizations, but a broader mass political movement that has violence at its core and draws strength even from places where Trump supporters are in the minority. Preventing further violence from this movement will require a deeper understanding of its activities and participants, and the two of us do not claim to know which political tactics might ultimately prove helpful. But Americans who believe in democratic norms should be wary of pat solutions. Some of the standard methods of countering violent extremism—such as promoting employment or waiting patiently for participants to mellow with age—probably won’t mollify middle-aged, middle-class insurrectionists. And simply targeting better-established far-right organizations will not prevent people like the Capitol rioters from trying to exercise power by force.
