ARGUMENT: Climate emergency Is Climate Change a National Emergency?

Published 26 February 2021

Climate change is unlike any problem facing the nation and the world, Mark Nevitt writes: It has been aptly described as the “mother of all collective action” problems and a “super-wicked” problem. “Climate change is complicated by a unique temporal characteristic that penalizes inaction. Because greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stay in the atmosphere for decades, dithering on climate action imposes escalating costs that rise over time,” he writes. “At some point, the effects of climate change will be too acute, have had too much impact, or be too late to stop or reverse.”

Climate change is unlike any problem facing the nation and the world, Mark Nevitt writes in Just Security: It has been aptly described as the “mother of all collective action” problems and a “super-wicked” problem.

He adds:

Climate change is complicated by a unique temporal characteristic that penalizes inaction. Because greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stay in the atmosphere for decades, dithering on climate action imposes escalating costs that rise over time. Unlike other thorny problems (e.g. health care, immigration), we may lack the luxury of ever coming back to the political system for a climate retry in the future—this is the so-called “one shot” problem. At some point, the effects of climate change will be too acute, have had too much impact, or be too late to stop or reverse. Climate scientists exclaim that now is the time for political leaders to take our “climate shot” or risk irreversible, catastrophic harm, not just to Americans, but to humans as a species.

Scientists have been exclaiming, for years, that we are already in a state of planetary emergency. Members of Congress recently introduced legislation mandating the declaration of a national climate emergency, while Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NYinvited President Joe Biden to declare climate change a national emergency. Nevitt notes that acknowledging that a situation is a national emergency can elevate an issue in the international and national consciousness, sparking follow-on action. It can also offer supplemental and substantive authorities such as: 1. Prohibit Imports from Illegally Forested Products:; 2. Supercharge the Defense Production Act (DPA); 3. Tap into emergency transportation authorities, and much more.

Nevitt notes that traditional notions of what is foreseeable and what is unforeseeable are not easy to apply to the impacts of climate:

Yes, the climate science makes clear that human activity is clearly causing global warming. The rise in GHG emissions due to human activity is leading to an increase in global temperatures. This increase, and the Earth’s warming, in the aggregate, is entirely foreseeable. But traditional notions of what is foreseeable and what is unforeseeable are difficult to apply to climate impacts, tipping points, and extreme weather. Extreme weather and other climate impacts strike with increased intensity and frequency, but we cannot pinpoint when and where climate impacts will occur with any great precision. This places us in a reactive stance. And the potential for tipping points rises with each day of climate inaction but we also do not know when and where they might occur. Some models suggest that the Greenland ice sheet could be doomed at 1.5.° degrees Celsius.  This could happen as early as 2030. Is the wholesale disintegration of Greenland’s ice sheet by 2030 foreseeable, foreclosing action? Impossible to say, but in light of the sheer gravity of the threat, shouldn’t we at least consider taking proactive steps to address this?

In contrast, climate experts point to an entirely different definition of emergency, which is defined as risk multiplied by urgency. Urgency is a function of reaction time divided by time left to avoid a bad outcome.  Using this definition, climate experts estimate that these factors—risk and urgency—are already so acute that we are in a state of planetary emergency. Immediate action is required.

Nevitt concludes”

To be clear, declaring a climate emergency is not an easy decision, and criticisms about the NEA’s implications for democratic governance deserve careful attention. I’ve been quite critical in these pages of bold emergency pronouncements in other contexts — the border wall “emergency” being the most recent example. But the border crisis can’t be described as severe, urgent, catastrophic, or irreversible—characteristics that fairly describe climate change and its impacts.