Missteps Leading to Russian Cyberattack | Grapples with Far-Right Extremism in Its Ranks | China Is Not Ten Feet Tall, and more

·  “Mr. Biden’s aides are contemplating a range of responses … Those options, according to officials … included using cybertools to reveal or freeze assets secretly held by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, exposure of his links to oligarchs or technological moves to break through Russian censorship to help dissidents communicate to the Russian people at a moment of political protest.”

·  “Mr. Biden’s coming actions appear likely to include executive orders on improving the resiliency of government agencies and companies to attacks and proposals for mandatory disclosure of hackings. Many of the companies that lost data to the Russians have not admitted to it … But the subtext of much of the testimony was that Russia’s intelligence services might have laced American networks with ‘backdoor’ access. And that possibility—just the fear of it—could constrain the kind of punishment that Mr. Biden metes out.”

Five Reasons Not to Split Cyber Command from the NSA Any Time Soon – If Ever  (Chris C. Demchak, War on the Rocks)
In the waning days of President Donald Trump’s administration, a group of outgoing political appointees unexpectedly pushed through the acting secretary of defense to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff a hotly disputed plan to split the U.S. Cyber Command from the National Security Agency (NSA). This idea is a contentious and recurring sparring point, emerging in greater public display with the second Obama term. Some argue that the split is a question of when, not if. The debate is likely to continue through into the Biden administration given the proposal’s inclusion in the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act and language creating a commission to study conditions for separation in drafts for the 2021 equivalent law.
Nonetheless, a divorce of this kind is the wrong long-term solution for both agencies and for the nation. Cutting up what’s known as the “dual hat” — an arrangement under which the same leader runs both Cyber Command and the NSA — fragments American “defend forward” capabilities when the nation needs them to be integrated the most.

Building a China Strategy Starts by Answering These Questions  (Mike Dana and Lt. Col. Mathhew Crouch, Defense One)
To begin, we must question our perceptions and eliminate our biases.

Support for QAnon Is Hard to Measure. Polls May Overestimate It  (James Shanahan, The Conversation)
The spread of ideas online, and people’s endorsement of them in polls, doesn’t give the whole picture.

Could Iran Really Be Linked to “Eco-Terrorism” against Israel?  (Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post)

The ability of a ship to purposely dump oil so that, two weeks later, it harms a country’s coastline appears very complex.

Dominic Raab: ‘Worrying’ Number Of Children And Teenagers Recruited To Terrorist Groups During Lockdown  (Alan McGuinness, Sky News)
A “worrying” number of children and teenagers are being recruited to terrorist groups during the coronavirus lockdown, the foreign secretary has told MPs. Dominic Raab was addressing the Commons about the UK’s fight against Islamic State. He said the UK was tackling the terror group’s propaganda “head on”, but warned it was “still able to carry out lethal attacks”. IS remains the UK’s “most significant terrorist threat” at home and abroad, the foreign secretary told MPs. “This is a critical moment,” Mr Raab said. “Yes, Daesh’s [another name for IS] brand has weakened - it remains, nonetheless, globally recognised. “In December 2020, the UK Counter-Terrorism Referral Unit saw a 7% rise in the volume of terrorist content online and we can see a worrying rise in the proportion of children and teenagers that are now being arrested for terrorism offences. “And it was Assistant Commissioner Neil Basu of the Met [Metropolitan Police] who described lockdown and the accessibility of terrorist content online as a perfect storm because terrorists have digital access to those who are probably the most susceptible to extremist narratives. “So we are tackling Daesh’s propaganda head on and I am proud the FCDO [Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office] leads on this work on behalf of the global coalition.

Who Wants to Be A Soldier? Germany Grapples with Far-Right Extremism in Its Ranks  (James Angelos, Politico)
In many nations around the world, those who serve their country in uniform are honored with parades and adulated as heroes. Not so in Germany. In a country where any semblance of militarism calls to mind the Nazi past, the notion of a German soldier raising a gun in a foreign land remains for many uniquely abhorrent. That’s why, when Germany’s elite commando force, the Kommando Spezialkräfte (KSK), was established 25 years ago, many Germans were apprehensive. But following a humiliating incident during the Rwandan civil war — when a group of German citizens became stranded amid heavy fighting and had to be rescued by Belgian paratroopers — the then conservative government had reasoned that Germany could not continue to lean almost entirely on its NATO allies for many aspects of its security. KSK commandos subsequently served in Kosovo and Afghanistan — Germany’s first foreign combat missions since World War II. The German public was deeply divided over these engagements and remained intensely skeptical of sending troops to fight wars. Germans, after all, saw their country as a Friedensmacht, a “force for peace.

FBI Renews Attack on Encryption ahead of Another Possible Attack on the Capitol  (Tonya Riley, Washington Post)
The head of the FBI renewed calls for special law enforcement access to encrypted technologies in response to recent acts of domestic extremism. FBI director Christopher A. Wray and other FBI officials made the argument to senators over two days of hearings about law enforcement efforts leading up the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. They highlighted the use of the technology by the pro-Trump mob that stormed the Capitola as some of the perpetrators used encrypted technology to plan and execute the assault. “We … are moving more and more in a direction where if we don’t come up collectively with some kind of solution it’s not going to matter how bulletproof the legal process is or how horrific the crime is or how heartbreaking the victims are we will not be able to get access to the content and the evidence that we need to protect the American people,” Wray told members of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday. “I think, we will all rue the day.” The warnings come as Capitol Police warn of a possible plot by a militant group to today breach the Capitol, Tom Jackman, Matt Zapotosky, Michael Brice-Saddler and Craig Timberg report. Some followers of the extremist ideology QAnon falsely claim that former president Donald Trump will return to the White House on March 4.

China Is Not Ten Feet Tall  (Ryan Hass, Foreign Affairs)
How Alarmism Undermines American Strategy.

Building a China Strategy Starts by Answering These Questions  (Mike Dana and Lt. Col. Mathhew Crouch, Defense One)
To begin, we must question our perceptions and eliminate our biases.

China Is Losing Influence—and That Makes It Dangerous  (Salvatore Babones, Foreign Policy)
The best thing Biden can do is lighten up on China and let gravity take its toll.

The One-Sided War of Ideas with China  (Robert D. Kaplan, Foreign Policy)
As Washington ramps up to defend democracy, Beijing is still motivated mostly by geography.