ExtremismRacially Motivated Violent Extremists Pose Most Lethal Domestic Threat: U.S. Intelligence

Published 17 March 2021

Domestic violent extremists pose the most serious threat to public safety, says the unclassified summary of an intelligence community report released Wednesday. The intelligence report, echoing academic studies, stressed that white supremacists – to which the report also refers as “racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists” — and militia extremists pose the most lethal threat among domestic extremists. In addition to racial and ethnic hatred, domestic extremists are motivated by the false “narrative of fraud” in the 2020 presidential election; the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol; Covid-19 restrictions; and conspiracy theories. The report found that extremists motivated by biases against minorities and “perceived government overreach” will continue to drive radicalization and violent mobilization. The report was prepared by the Department of Justice, Department of Homeland Security, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Domestic violent extremists pose the greatest threat to the United States – indeed, they pose the most lethal domestic threat to public safety — U.S. intelligence agencies said in a report released Wednesday, 17 March. The report added that more violence is likely due to conspiracy theories and false information surrounding the 2020 election, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the January insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the intelligence report stressed that white supremacists and militia extremists pose the most lethal threat among domestic extremists, and that racially motivated extremists are “most likely to conduct mass-casualty attacks.” The intelligence report thus echoes the findings and conclusions of academic studies, and the testimony late last year by FBI Director Christopher Wray and DHS officials.

The report was prepared by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). It notes that “lone wolves” or small cells are more likely to perpetrate violent acts than are organized extremist groups.

“[Domestic Violent Extremist] attackers often radicalize independently by consuming violent extremist material online and mobilize without direction from a violent extremist organization, making detection and disruption difficult,” the report said.

The 4-page report released on Wednesday is an unclassified summary of a longer classified document which ODNI distributed to the White House and Congress.

Here is the report’s executive summary:

The IC assesses that domestic violent extremists (DVEs) who are motivated by a range of ideologies and galvanized by recent political and societal events in the United States pose an elevated threat to the Homeland in 2021. Enduring DVE motivations pertaining to biases against minority populations and perceived government overreach will almost certainly continue to drive DVE radicalization and mobilization to violence. Newer sociopolitical developments—such as narratives of fraud in the recent general election, the emboldening impact of the violent breach of the US Capitol, conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and conspiracy theories promoting violence—will almost certainly spur some DVEs to try to engage inviolence this year.

The IC assesses that lone offenders or small cells of DVEs adhering to a diverse set of violent extremist ideologies are more likely to carry out violent attacks in the Homeland than organizations that allegedly advocate a DVE ideology. DVE attackers often radicalize independently by consuming violent extremist material online and mobilize without direction from a violent extremist organization, making detection and disruption difficult.

The IC assesses that racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists (RMVEs) and militia violent extremists (MVEs) present the most lethal DVE threats, with RMVEs most likely to conduct mass-casualty attacks against civilians and MVEs typically targeting law enforcement and government personnel and facilities. The IC assesses that the MVE threat increased last year and that it will almost certainly continue to be elevated throughout 2021 because of contentious sociopolitical factors that motivate MVEs to commit violence.

The IC assesses that US RMVEs who promote the superiority of the white race are the DVE actors with the most persistent and concerning transnational connections because individuals with similar ideological beliefs exist outside of the United States and these RMVEs frequently communicate with and seek to influence each other. We assess that a small number of US RMVEs have traveled abroad to network with like-minded individuals.

The IC assesses that DVEs exploit a variety of popular social media platforms, smaller websites with targeted audiences, and encrypted chat applications to recruit new adherents, plan and rally support for inperson actions, and disseminate materials that contribute to radicalization and mobilization to violence.

The IC assesses that several factors could increase the likelihood or lethality of DVE attacks in 2021 and beyond, including escalating support from persons in the United States or abroad, growing perceptions of government overreach related to legal or policy changes and disruptions, and high-profile attacks spurring follow-on attacks and innovations in targeting and attack tactics.

DVE lone offenders will continue to pose significant detection and disruption challenges because of their capacity for independent radicalization to violence, ability to mobilize discretely, and access to firearms.