The Russia connectionRussia, Iran Meddled in November's Election; China Did Not: U.S. Intelligence

By Jeff Seldin

Published 17 March 2021

A just-released assessment by U.S. intelligence officials finds Russia and Iran did seek to influence the outcome of the November 2020 presidential election. But the assessment also concludes that, despite repeated warnings by a number of top Trump officials, China ultimately decided to sit it out. In the run-up to the November election, President Donald Trump, DNI John Ratcliffe, NSC Adviser Robert O’Brien, and AG William Barr. Among other Trump supporters, argued the Chinese interference in the election posed as much of a threat to the election as Russian interference, with Barr arguing that China posed an even greater threat. The intelligence community’s unanimous conclusions that “China did not deploy interference efforts and considered but did not deploy influence efforts intended to change the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election,” will likely lead to new questions about how the intelligence was presented to the public.

A just-released assessment by U.S. intelligence officials finds Russia and Iran, joined by a handful of other countries and groups, did seek to influence the outcome of the November 2020 presidential election. But the assessment also concludes that, despite repeated warnings by a number of top officials, China ultimately decided to sit it out. 

The declassified report, issued Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, is the U.S. intelligence community’s final take on foreign meddling in the hotly contested race, in which then-presidential candidate Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump. 

Initially completed and shared with the Trump administration in a classified form in January, the unclassified version, required by law, seeks to give U.S. voters an overview of the threats and of their impact on American democracy.  

While the assessment concludes no adversary managed to infiltrate critical systems or change how votes were cast, the conclusions on China could lead to new questions about how the intelligence was initially presented to the public. 

We assess that China did not deploy interference efforts and considered but did not deploy influence efforts intended to change the outcome of the US Presidential election,” the newly released ODNI report said, adding it had “high confidence” in its finding. 

China sought stability in its relationship with the United States, did not view either election outcome as being advantageous enough for China to risk getting caught meddling, and assessed its traditional influence tools — primarily targeted economic measures and lobbying — would be sufficient to meet its goal of shaping U.S. China policy regardless of the winner,” the report stated. 

Earlier Warnings 
Those findings contrast with earlier warnings from intelligence officials who spent months warning voters of the potential threats, specifically calling out efforts by China along with Russia and Iran. 

China is expanding its influence efforts to shape the policy environment in the United States, pressure political figures it views as opposed to China’s interests, and counter criticism of China,” then National Counterintelligence and Security Center Director William Evanina said in a statement issued last July, 100 days before the election. “Beijing recognizes its efforts might affect the presidential race.” 

Other top officials were even more adamant about the threat from China. 

In August, then-Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe grouped China with Russia and Iran in an interview with Fox Business News. 

I don’t want to say this is only about China,” Ratcliffe said at the time. “China, Russia,