CounterterrorismDisplaced Conflict: Russia’s Qualified Success in Combatting Insurgency
In both Syria and the North Caucasus, Russia claims success in fighting insurgency and terrorism, offering itself as a model of best practice. Closer examination, however, shows that this “success” carries major caveats and is more illusory than it first appears.
In both Syria and the North Caucasus, Russia claims success in fighting insurgency and terrorism, offering itself as a model of best practice. Closer examination, however, shows that this “success” carries major caveats and is more illusory than it first appears. This article considers the link between Russian-speaking foreign fighters in Syria and domestic jihadism, the lessons of Russia’s counterinsurgency approach and the potential for further conflict in the North Caucasus. It argues that Russia has successfully defeated the domestic insurgency, in part by displacing the conflict to Syria, but has remained in the crosshairs of Russian nationals recruited to fight abroad. Furthermore, Russia’s failure to address underlying problems makes it likely the North Caucasus will continue to experience low levels of violence and instability, even if the re-emergence of organized insurgency is unlikely in the short term.
Victory at Home and Abroad?
Russian officials portray their counterinsurgency and counterterrorism strategies in Syria and the North Caucasus as a success. In March 2016, President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of the withdrawal of military forces from Syria, claiming they had “generally” achieved their goals (even though some of these forces stayed on and continue to participate in combat operations and patrolling as of April 2021). Russia helped ensure the survival of the Assad regime and the recapture of key territory. In the North Caucasus, Russian National Antiterrorism Committee head Alexander Bortnikov has declared in a 2021 interview that “the primary hotbeds of terrorist activity, and all the heads of armed gangs, have been eliminated.” He claimed that, around the world, countries are looking to Russia’s “unique” experience for lessons on how to successfully combat terrorism.
On the surface, Russia’s claims to success appear justified. In Syria, Thomas Schaffner has detailed how Russia has succeeded in protecting or advancing its national interests through intervention in multiple ways. In the North Caucasus, year-on-year insurgent violence has declined and organized insurgency has been eliminated. Although occasional violent clashes still occur, there is little evidence of any capacity for sustained resistance. The Islamic State has, it is true, claimed numerous attacks on Russian soil. Still, these do not demonstrate high levels of sophistication, often involving rudimentary weapons and online encouragement but little by way of substantive operational support.
