Hostage videosVideos: Proof of Life or Death?

While terrorist hostage-taking is uncommon, ideologically motivated hostage-takers often provide a video demonstrating proof of control and proof of life (POL). These videos establish that a hostage is alive at the time the video was made, and hence provide valuable information for families and governments charged with their safe recovery.

What they don’t reveal, however, is the likely fate of hostages.

A new study from CREST Research examines the POL issue.

Theories have been suggested that hostage-taking is a form of organized crime where economic concessions are demanded from rational actors requiring a benefit. While this may apply in many cases, this article argues that each case and hostage-taking group differs, and variables apply dependent on the political situation, the group dynamic and evolving methodology, and the political ‘win’ current to the prevailing conditions (e.g. civil war breakout).

There is limited research on POL videos and narrative exploration, which can inform thinking as to whether hostage-takers are more inclined – through their behaviors and narrative – to execute hostages, or whether they are holding hostages to obtain political concessions to pursue, fund, and finance their strategic attacks and initiatives.

Addressing limited research in this area can help support our understanding of the terrorist group dynamic, their strategic thinking, and the business model they are employing.

Furthermore, any hostage rescue operation can significantly raise the risk to life of a kidnapped hostage held by a terrorist group, so insights gained from analyzing POL videos have the potential to improve operational planning and save lives.

Hostages kidnapped in Afghanistan and Mali had no fatalities (however, it is noted that hostages are still being held at this time in Mali and, therefore, their fate is unknown). From the analysis of the sample, hostages taken in Iraq and Syria had the highest death rate in terms of this sample – 78 Percent and 70 percent respectively.

Furthermore, regarding Afghanistan and Mali, these cases accounted for the longest periods held in captivity (five years and five-and-a-half years respectively). This suggests that the longer a hostage is held, the more likely they are of being released.

The POL videos varied in length from 12 seconds to almost 19 minutes. The longer videos tended to involve a much more advanced production, incorporating propaganda and news footage from a political dimension.

In terms of outcome, there was no difference whether the hostages were shown alone or together (in cases where multiple hostages were taken).

14 percent of the sample in the POL videos were shown as on their knees in a pleading state. Of note, all hostages in these videos were killed.

JNIM in Mali were noted to have significantly improved their POL productions in the last six years to a very professional output. It is unknown whether this is a strategic imperative or could be answered by access to better equipment and applications that are now available.

It was rare to see hostage-takers delivering a narrative alone and without the hostage in view. Only two cases from the sample fitted this category. They were both ISIS videos from Syria cases and depicted the same hostage-taker. Both cases ended in death.

39 percent of the sample analyzed involved armed and masked hostage-takers being depicted in the videos. Of those, 75 percent ended in the death of the hostages.