Urban Crime Fell by over a Third around the World During COVID-19 Shutdowns

Burglary also fell an average of 28 percent across all cities. However, lockdowns affected burglary numbers in markedly different ways from city to city. While Lima in Peru saw rates plunge by 84 percent, San Francisco actually saw a 38 percent increase in break-ins as a result of COVID restrictions.

Data from many cities didn’t distinguish between commercial and residential. Where it did, burglaries of private premises – rather than shops or warehouses – was more likely to decline, with more people stuck in-doors around the clock.

Reduction was lowest for crimes of homicide: down just 14 percent on average across all cities in the study. Dr Amy Nivette from the University of Utrecht, the study’s first author, said: “In many societies, a significant proportion of murders are committed in the home. The restrictions on urban mobility may have little effect on domestic murders. 

“In addition, organised crime – such as drug trafficking gangs – is responsible for a varying percentage of murders. The behaviour of these gangs is likely to be less sensitive to the changes enforced by a lockdown,” said Nivette.

However, three cities where gang crime drives violence, all in South America, did see major falls in daily homicide as a result of COVID-19 policies. In Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, homicide dropped 24 percent. In Cali, Columbia, the drop was 29 percent, and in Lima, Peru, it plummeted 76 percent.

Rates of reported assaults also saw striking falls in Rio de Janeiro (56 percent drop) and Lima (75 percent drop). “It may be that criminal groups used the crisis to strengthen their power by imposing curfews and restricting movement in territories they control, resulting in a respite to the violence that plagues these cities,” said Eisner.

Researchers found Barcelona to be something of an “outlier”, with massive falls in assault (84 percent drop) and robbery (80 percent drop). Police-recorded thefts in the Spanish city declined from an average of 385 per day to just 38 per day under lockdown.

London saw less pronounced but still significant falls in some crime, with daily robberies dropping by 60 percent, theft by 44 percent and burglaries by 29 percent. The two US cities in the study, Chicago and San Francisco, had their best results in the category of assault, falling by 34 percent and 36 percent respectively.

The research team found no overall relationship between measures such as school closures or economic support and crime rates during lockdowns.

Added Eisner: “The measures taken by governments across the world to control COVID-19 provided a series of natural experiments, with major changes in routines, daily encounters and use of public space over entire populations.

“The pandemic has been devastating, but there are also opportunities to better understand social processes, including those involved in causing city-wide crime levels.”