WAR IN UKRAINEU.S. Military Expert: “Ukraine's Position on the Battlefield Is Very Strong”
John Spencer says Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine anytime soon but he predicts Ukraine will ultimately prevail. He says the recent decision by Washington to deliver a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine may not be a game-changing move, but it could trigger other Western allies to donate similar systems, bolstering Kyiv’s defenses.
John Spencer is a retired U.S. Army major and expert on urban warfare. He currently serves as the chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Madison Policy Forum. Spencer is also the author of the Mini-Manual for the Urban Defender, which draws on his decades of military experience. It has been translated into Ukrainian and is used by the country’s military.
In an interview with RFE/RL’s Georgian Service, Spencer says Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine anytime soon but he predicts Ukraine will ultimately prevail. He says the recent decision by Washington to deliver a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine may not be a game-changing move, but it could trigger other Western allies to donate similar systems, bolstering Kyiv’s defenses. Spencer also says the West has been too tentative in delivering weapons to Ukraine due to what he considers unfounded fears of how the Kremlin will react.
Vazha Tavberidze: It’s been just over 300 days since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although predictions are difficult at best, how much longer do you think this conflict will last?
John Spencer: We start with a difficult question, which I would ask like this: How many more months? I do not share the opinion of the people who think that this war will last for years. Ukraine’s position on the battlefield is very strong, and it has equally strong allies off the battlefield.
Do you remember Sun Tzu (author of Art of War)? This wise Chinese monk teaches us that if you want to defeat your enemy, you must defeat his strategy. Putin’s initial strategy failed back in April when he tried and failed to take Kyiv. His second strategy, aimed at alienating Ukraine’s allies, did not work either. And his current campaign, whose goal is to freeze Ukraine, to bring darkness to Ukraine, is also futile. And this burden was placed not only on Ukrainians, but also on its allies. We can already say that it didn’t work either. Ukraine was not abandoned by its allies; moreover, they promised to be by its side as long as Kyiv needs it to protect its freedom and resist the Russian occupation.
