QUAGMIRESWhat the Iraq War Can Teach the U.S. About Avoiding a Quagmire in Ukraine – 3 Key Lessons
The Iraq and Ukraine wars have notable differences from a U.S. foreign policy perspective – chiefly, thousands of American soldiers died fighting in Iraq, while the U.S. does not have any ground troops in Ukraine. But assessing the Iraq War, and its long aftermath, can still help articulate concerns about the United States’ getting involved in intense violence in another faraway place.
Leaked Pentagon papers showed in early April 2023 that the U.S. is allegedly following the inner workings of Russia’s intelligence operations and is also spying on Ukraine, adding a new dimension to the United States’ involvement in the Ukraine war.
While the U.S. has not actually declared war against Russia, the documents show that it continues to support Ukraine with military intelligence as well as money and weapons against the Russian invasion.
There is no end in sight to the war between Ukraine and Russia – nor to U.S. involvement. While it is far from the first time that the U.S. became a third party to war, this scenario brings the Iraq War, in particular, to mind.
I am a scholar of international relations and an expert on international conflicts. A comparison with the Iraq War, I believe, offers a useful way to look at the case of Ukraine.
The Iraq and Ukraine wars have notable differences from a U.S. foreign policy perspective – chiefly, thousands of American soldiers died fighting in Iraq, while the U.S. does not have any ground troops in Ukraine. But assessing the Iraq War, and its long aftermath, can still help articulate concerns about the United States’ getting involved in intense violence in another faraway place.
Here are three key points to understand.
1. Intervention Doesn’t Guarantee Success
Around the time former President George W. Bush announced the U.S. would invade Iraq in 2003, Osama bin Laden, the wealthy Saudi Arabian Islamist who orchestrated the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, remained at large. While not obviously connected, the fact that bin Laden continued to evade the U.S. contributed to a general sense of anger at hostile regimes. In particular, Saddam Hussein defied the U.S. and its allies.
The Iraqi dictator continued to evade inspections by the United Nations watchdog group the International Atomic Energy Agency, giving the impression that he had weapons of mass destruction. This proved maddening to the U.S. and its allies as the cat and mouse game dragged on.
Bush reportedly had intense concerns about whether Saddam could use alleged weapons of mass destruction to attack the U.S., causing even more harm than 9/11 did.
A U.S.-led coalition of countries that included the United Kingdom and Australia invaded Iraq in March 2003. The “coalition of the willing,” as it became known, won a quick victory and toppled Saddam’s regime.
