What If China Really Did Develop COVID as a Bioweapon? Here Are the Issues Involved
Next Steps – More Data?
So, what could the rest of the world do about these new allegations – if anything?
The dispute over whether COVID-19 was created by Chinese scientists is still as hot as ever. States may feel they need more information.
We have already seen something similar happen in Syria in relation to chemical weapons, which are said to have been used during the conflict there. Despite the former US president Barack Obama having called the use of chemical weapons a “red line”, Washington said it did not wish to act until they felt the evidence of chemical warfare was incontrovertible.
Like chemical weapons, bioweapons are terrible forms of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Yet it is precisely because these armaments are so terrible that states have to be careful. Any allegation that a country has broken the rules on WMD will be controversial. Politicians will want to, and should, be sure of the facts.
One option then is for further investigation, possibly through an international organization such as the WHO. But this would be a difficult investigation for a number of reasons.
Investigation would not only be hard because China has yet to be fully transparent. This issue is also problematic because of dual use. Biological research doesn’t necessarily mean biowarfare. Research is also carried out for good purposes – such as medical advances. And those two types of research look much the same. So even if China were developing a vaccine, was this for public health reasons or to create defenses against biowarfare attacks from others?
It is also easy to hide biowarfare research. Scientific experiments typically happen in small and secretive facilities, using equipment that can be dismantled quickly if there is any suspicion that inspectors are about to come knocking.
Options for Action
What if the international community wants to take further action? States could make an official complaint that China may have violated the 1972 biological weapons convention (BWC). The convention is a legally binding treaty that prohibits the possession and use of biological weapons. The US has previously said that it “does not have sufficient information” to determine whether China has complied with the BWC.
Complaints can be made through the United Nations. In 2022, the UN Security Council denied such a complaint by Russia against Ukraine. States could appeal to the International Court of Justice, but there may be legal issues with this – especially given that not all states are signed up to the BWC. States can also call a special meeting of the BWC signatories to discuss a possible violation of the convention.
A complaint would not necessarily do much. The BWC has been widely criticized because it does not have a verification mechanism, so it has little direct authority over what states do. Making a complaint, however, would at least raise the issue at the international level.
Another potential option is the UN Secretary-General’s Mechanism for Investigation of Alleged Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons. Yet this option is shaky as it allows for investigations into the actual use of bioweapons. But even if COVID-19 were shown to be a laboratory leak this would almost certainly have been accidental and not clearly a case of biowarfare.
Ultimately, of course, another option for the international community is that they do nothing. The Sunday Times article claims to present new data, but it is not indisputable. And even merely bringing up the issue of biowarfare with China would be diplomatically contentious and ruffle a lot of political feathers.
As such, the international community will not want to take the dispute over COVID-19 forward unless they have definitive evidence of a Chinese biowarfare program. But, given the nature of biological research, we may never be able to get that certainty.
Michelle Bentley isReader in International Relations, Royal Holloway University of London. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.
