Can Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin Challenge Putin?

In 2014, Prigozhin set up a private military company Wagner Group. As with the troll factories, he long denied any involvement with the group until September 2022, when he admitted to having formed the unit.

Alexandra Prokopenko, an independent Russian analyst, told DW that Prigozhin’s mercenary outfit was providing “gray services” for Putin.

“He was making his boss’ and his inner circle’s life easier in the regions where they did not want to be involved publicly and officially,” said Prokopenko. “For instance, in Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine, as well as Africa and Syria, where Wagner mercenaries not only participated in combat actions but also guarded some oil facilities.”

Wagner Group vs. the Russian army
Wagner mercenaries first became involved in Ukraine in 2014, when they helped Russia-backed separatists illegally annex the Crimean Peninsula. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the ability of Wagner fighters to make progress in fierce battles in eastern Ukraine became an important military asset for the Kremlin. In January 2023, Wagner claimed it had taken control of the Ukrainian city of Soledar, seen as one of Moscow’s rare victories since the beginning of the war.

The efficiency of the Wagner Group, and its rising importance on the battlefield, has allowed Prigozhin to launch an embarrassing campaign against Russia’s top military officials.

Amid public outcry over the lack of ammunition for Russian soldiers, he has accused military leaders of incompetence. In a seven-minute audio message on February 20, 2023 Prigozhin accused Russia’s top military commanders of “treason” for depriving his troops of ammunition.

“I’m unable to solve this problem despite all my connections and contacts,” he complained, adding that he was required to “apologize and obey” to secure ammunition for his fighters. The Russian Defense Ministry has denied Prigozhin’s accusations, saying that such statements were “absolutely untrue.”

A day later, in response, Prigozhin released another audio message, claiming that the actions of military officials are “tantamount to nothing more than simply spitting at Wagner.”

Prigozhin has also personally attacked Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and top Russian General Valery Gerasimov, who was responsible for the modernization of the army. In one of his latest critiques in May, he blamed Russian military bureaucracy for unsuccessful attempts to capture Bakhmut, which for several months has been at the center of the conflict with severe Russian and Ukrainian casualties.

“Bakhmut would have been taken before the New Year, if not for our monstrous military bureaucracy […] and the spokes that are put in the wheels daily,” Prigozhin told Russian state media.

According to Kolesnikov, only Putin has a mandate to criticize military officials in Russia’s autocratic system.

“Putin needs Prigozhin for the function of keeping military generals on their toes,” he said. “That is how Putin balances the ‘weights’ of the various figures, pushes them against each other, keeps an eye on them so that none of these figures is excessively strengthened.”

Despite Prigozinh’s dressing down of military officials, the Russian president promoted Gerasimov earlier in January, making him an overall commander in Ukraine. The move, analysts argued, showed the limited significance of Prigozhin’s rhetoric on Putin’s decision-making.

‘Headache for Everyone in the Kremlin’
The formerly media-shy Prigozhin has become the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine. His rising publicity has given rise to speculation of possible political ambitions. According to the independent Russian website Meduza, Prigozhin was planning to launch a patriotic and conservative movement that would eventually evolve into a political party — an idea he has publicly denied.

As Tatiana Stanovaya wrote in the article for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Prigozhin’s ambitions in the political arena may damage his relations with the Kremlin. “The domestic policy overseers don’t like his political demagogy, his attacks on official institutions, or his attempts to troll Putin’s staff by threatening to form a political party, which would be a headache for everyone in the Kremlin.”

The Kremlin’s desire to tighten the reins on Prigozhin was seen in the move to strip him of the right to recruit convicts who, according to the US National Security Council, make up 80% of Wagner troops. In an interview with Russian military bloggers and state media this week, he acknowledged that after the downsizing, the Wagner Group would have a more limited role in Russia’s war effort. become

Prigozhin’s only path is to a politician, given the responsibilities that he has been assigned, said Kolesnikov.

“However, Putin doesn’t want to bring him into the legal field, which would mean strengthening him as a politician,” the analyst told DW. “As long as Vladimir Putin is able to subtly control political forces, he can withdraw Prigozhin from the chessboard at the right time and put him back to his usual place — in underground politics.”

Maria Katamadze reports for DW from Riga. This article, which was edited by Sean Sinico, is published courtesy of Deutsche Welle (DW).