TRUTH DECAYTruth Decay Is Putting U.S. National Security at Risk
America’s troubled relationship with facts is putting national security at risk. “Truth Decay”—the diminishing role of facts and analysis in public life—could weaken our military, costs us credibility with our allies, and calls into question our ability to respond to the next big crisis.
America’s troubled relationship with facts is putting national security at risk. A recent RAND paper warned that “Truth Decay”—the diminishing role of facts and analysis in public life—could weaken our military, costs us credibility with our allies, and calls into question our ability to respond to the next big crisis.
Experts from across RAND described Truth Decay as a “huge vulnerability,” an “obvious one,” “a strong weapon” in the hands of our adversaries. Yet the full extent of the damage we are doing to ourselves is only just beginning to come into focus.
“We’re stuck in a cycle,” said Caitlin McCulloch, an associate political scientist at RAND who coauthored the paper. “Polarization is feeding into Truth Decay, Truth Decay is feeding into polarization, and round and round we go. The harm that cycle is doing to our national security has not been fully explored.”
Truth Decay is more than just a fact-free rant on cable television or a conspiracy theory bouncing around social media. RAND uses the term to describe a society pulling apart over basic facts, with opinion too often standing in for analysis and debates hardening into distrust. It helps explain why nearly two-thirds of Americans in a recent NPR/Ipsos poll said U.S. democracy is in crisis and at risk of failing.
Not so long ago, political experts assumed foreign policy and national security were above the public fray. They were the domain of diplomats, intelligence agents, and other career specialists. The average person on the street couldn’t find most countries on a map, the thinking went—much less have a meaningful impact on the affairs of state. One pundit in the 1950s described the public as a “prehistoric monster” when it comes to foreign affairs—”with a body as long as this room and a brain the size of a pin.”
That’s not the going theory anymore. Research has shown that public opinion—often shaped by politicians and other leaders—can exert a powerful force on questions of war, peace, and national security. A 2019 study, for example, found that members of the Israeli parliament were 16 percentage points more likely to authorize a military strike when they thought that’s what the public wanted. That gives Truth Decay a way in.
