Winning the 21st-Century Intelligence Contest

What’s changed are the phenomena that will determine who comes out on top: not least OSINT (open-source intelligence) and the race for artificial-intelligence-driven mastery of data. For Walton, a critical historical lesson is the importance of creativity, exemplified by the CIA’s turn to technologically sophisticated satellite imagery to overcome the challenge of spying behind the Iron Curtain.

Walton’s chosen analogy is war. That’s not uncontroversial. It captures the century-long nature of the dynamic and the sense of zero-sum results, but I’m queasy about direct equation at a time when we have an actual war occurring on the plains of eastern Europe. ‘Contest’, albeit more bloodless and less evocative, is a safer harbor for more generalized accounts of intelligence. It also better accommodates multidirectional intelligence efforts in an increasingly multipolar world.

For the writers in Deter, Disrupt or Deceive: Assessing Cyber Conflict as an Intelligence Contest, edited by Robert Chesney and Max Smeets, the question is whether the long-heralded idea of ‘cyber war’ is indeed actually better understood as ‘intelligence contest’. In doing so, the contributors also consider different national (including Chinese and Russian) perspectives on cyber issues and the role of non-state actors (including internet users, technology companies and cybersecurity firms).

US scholar Josh Rovner’s chapter dissecting what constitutes an intelligence contest is perceptive. In his words, participants endeavor to:

·  ‘collect more and better information relevant to long-term political competition’

·  ‘exploit that information for practical gain’

·  ‘undermine [their] adversary’s morale, institutions and alliances’

·  ‘disable adversary intelligence capabilities through sabotage’

·  ‘pre-position assets for future collection in the event of a conflict’.

The result is typically long-term information duels among adversary states, during which participants use secrecy for defensive but also offensive purposes. They’re challenged too, as all regimes (democratic and undemocratic alike) ‘struggle to make the most of intelligence, but for different reasons’. Amid that struggle are overriding incentives to innovate but also to end up mimicking one’s adversaries’ tactics and capabilities.

I would observe that, as in a duel, those rivals search for points of advantage and positive asymmetry amid what can otherwise tend towards an evenly matched stalemate.

What are the lessons for Australia? After all, our national intelligence community is necessarily engaged in defense and offence to advance our national interests in concert with our allies and unilaterally. We’re also drawing on experiences back to at least the onset of the Cold War.

One distinction from the past is a new sense of maturity and realism in Australian approaches to intelligence matters. Recent ABC allegations about Soviet penetration of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization in the 1970s and 1980s suggest just how naive we have been historically, including in our political discourse. That’s reinforced by the 40th anniversary of the Combe–Ivanov affair and the second Hope royal commission. Much of the supposedly hard-bitten cynicism of that moment, especially from the press gallery and commentariat, now comes across as impossibly provincial and innocent.

For Valeriy Ivanov was an undeclared KGB officer. He was actively cultivating a senior political figure in pursuit of Soviet interests. ASIO was on the ball. Prime Minister Bob Hawke acted appropriately. Justice Robert Hope got it right (again).

Australia has moved on thankfully, as can be seen from the forthright approach of ASIO, the rest of the intelligence community and the government to the realities of espionage and foreign interference today—and the fact that Australia finds itself in the strategic cockpit of the 21st century, rather than the sidelines of the 20th.

Australia can also take note from Spies and from Deter, disrupt or deceive that we are in a contest, like it or not. That contest involves defense and offence. But an intelligence contest only makes sense within a broader strategy incorporating defense, deterrence, diplomacy and national resilience (including social cohesion).

The intelligence contest in the 21st century requires mastery of both old techniques and new ways of working. For an intelligence middle-power like Australia, a key to success will be creativity and innovation. As will be making the most of our national talent.

There’s also a need for self-reflection: what features of Australian government structures will challenge our making the best use of intelligence? One would be the relatively immature integration of intelligence within broader statecraft. Another might be the still limited engagement between our intelligence community and the nation and people it serves.

But Australia is blessed with an established, comprehensive national intelligence capability. And the power of our enduring intelligence relationships.

All of these are important issues for the next independent intelligence review to examine.

Chris Taylor heads ASPI’s statecraft and intelligence program. The views expressed in this article are the author’s alone and do not represent those of the Australian government or any government agency. This article is published courtesy of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).