Americans in Former Confederate States More Likely to Say Violent Protest against Government Is Justified, 160 Years After Gettysburg

points more likely than Union state residents to say it is “definitely” or “probably” justifiable to engage in violent protest against the government. Border State residents are about 3 points more likely than Union residents to say violence can be justified.

When asked whether it is justifiable to engage in violent protest against the government right now, 12% of Confederate state residents say “yes” – which is 2 percentage points higher than the share who say “yes” in Border States and 3 points higher than those in Union states.

To ensure that these results do not reflect underlying social and demographic differences in the residents of these states, I used a statistical technique known as multiple regression. This technique allows researchers to determine the effect of a variable – in this case state residency – on an outcome – support for political violence – after accounting for differences attributable to other factors.

This analysis reveals that even after accounting for partisanship, race, gender, education, age, income, ideology and attitudes toward Black people, residents of Confederate states still express significantly greater support for political violence than do residents of Union or Border states.

Before you start fortifying your homes against a second Civil War, keep in mind that support for political violence – even among residents of the old Confederacy – remains low.

Nowhere close to a majority of Americans are ready to take up arms to overthrow the government. However, as the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol demonstrated, even a small minority of people intent on violence can cause serious harm to the nation.

History Matters
Overall, these results point to the importance of historical factors in understanding modern support for political violence.

Political scientists have traced the importance of slavery on modern political attitudes, demonstrating that institutions long since eradicated still shape politics today.

Research has also shown that Southern myths about the Civil War, including the “Lost Cause” narrative of the Confederacy – which casts the Confederate cause as glorious and honorable rather than aimed at maintaining slavery – dominated history textbooks after 1877.

These distortions affect how modern Americans think about history. As recently as 2017, polling by the Southern Poverty Law Center found that just 8% of American 12th graders could correctly identify slavery as the central cause of the Civil War.

Distorted portrayals of the Civil War as a glorious fight for independence by Southern states may contribute to the significantly greater support for political violence among these states’ residents today. The current political debate over how history can be taught in public schools highlights the importance of such decisions.

Lincoln: ‘These Dead Shall Not Have Died in Vain’
On this grim anniversary, perhaps Americans can spend time contemplating Lincoln’s famous words to “take increased devotion to that cause” for which these honored dead “gave the last full measure of devotion.”

The Civil War was essentially the largest instance of homegrown violence against the government in U.S. history. Now, at a time of increasing political violence in the nation, I believe it is more important than ever to reflect on the Battle of Gettysburg – and the terrible toll wrought by the violence there.

Alauna Safarpour is Postdoctoral Fellow, Network Science Institute, Northeastern University. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.