The Niger Coup Could Threaten the Entire Sahel

Bazoum’s overthrow is the latest in a pattern. It marks the seventh coup in West and Central Africa since 2020, as militaries in Mali, Burkina Faso, and elsewhere have reacted against what they see as failing civilian leadership. 

What Are the Regional and International Implications? 
Observers worry that this growing trend of military rule could augur worsening regional instability and backsliding in the fight against extremist groups, potentially spurring more migration and opening the door to greater Russian influence.

They note that the fight against insurgent groups is already weakening as Western countries are sidelined. In Burkina Faso and Mali, which expelled intervening French forces last year, violence has soared. An isolated Niger could make security matters worse for the insurgent situation. The United States, European Union, and United Nations have all condemned the coup, while the World Bank has suspended some development aid and the Economic Community of West African States, a regional bloc, has imposed sanctions and threatened military intervention to restore Bazoum. 

With a breakdown in democracy putting the U.S.-Niger partnership at risk—Washington has warned that it could cease aid, and Niamey has confined U.S. troops to their bases—other analysts see an opportunity for Russia to fill the gap. Moscow has positioned itself as an “anti-colonial” alternative partner for countries across the region, and its Wagner Group mercenaries have deployed in Mali and elsewhere. Niger has so far held out against seeking similar ties with Russia. But the incoming junta could take a different view, experts say, and as Africa’s second-biggest uranium producer, Niger is an attractive ally for Russia as it seeks to gain influence in resource-rich African countries. 

Meanwhile, insecurity could also undermine efforts to curb illegal immigration and human trafficking, as Niger is situated along a major northward migration route to the Mediterranean. The country that once embodied the region’s hopes for stability now appears to be teetering. “I’m very worried that Sahelian Africa is going to melt down,” Oxford University’s Paul Collier tells the New York Times. 

Mariel Ferragamo is Assistant Copy Editor/Writer at CFR. This article is published courtesy of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).