What's Behind North Korea's “Nuclear Attack” Drills?

Satellites orbiting at 500 kilometers (310 miles) above the Earth and with the ability to provide intelligence 24 hours a day and in all weather conditions means that any looming North Korean attack will be visible well in advance.  

North’s Ground Forces Outclassed
Another problem the North faces is that it only has three potential ground routes of attack against the South, due to the geography of the peninsula, with any assault funneled into narrow areas and quickly resulting in what experts call “a cauldron of death” for the North’s elderly tanks and under-equipped infantry units at the hands of the South and US forces. 

It would be a similar situation for the North’s air force, said Garren Mulloy, a professor of international relations at Daito Bunka University in Japan and an expert on military issues.   

“Fighter pilots in NATO countries will put in a minimum of 200 hours of operational flying every year on the most advanced aircraft in their arsenals,” he said. “It is estimated that North Korean pilots are only able to put in 20 hours a year due to shortages of fuel and their inability to obtain spare parts for their aircraft.” 

There are additional question marks over the North’s capabilities in other areas, including chemical, biological and bacteriological weapons, often dubbed the “poor man’s nuclear weapons.” 

“We know they have them and while no other country in the world would use them, we cannot entirely rule out the possibility of Pyongyang using these weapons, depending on just how threatened they felt,” Mulloy said.

The North has no qualms about touting its nuclear capability, with the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analysis releasing a report in January estimating that Pyongyang’s scientists have produced more than 2.2 tons of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium and as much as 78 kilograms (172 pounds) of plutonium.

That amount of fissile material would be sufficient for up to 90 warheads and, if development continues at the same pace, the institute believes North Korea could have 166 nuclear weapons by 2030. 

It is this saber that Pyongyang is now rattling, and with increased confidence as geopolitical events in other parts of the world have led to alliances of mutual convenience with both Russia and China.  

“Escalation of Threats of Violence”
“South Korea is not responsible for the escalation of these threats of violence from the North, although it has also been argued that the closer alliance between the South, the US and Japan has stimulated Pyongyang into those closer ties with Beijing and Moscow,” said Lim Eun-jung, an associate professor of international studies at Kongju National University in South Korea.  

The upgraded Moscow-Pyongyang alliance is arguably the most significant change in recent years, with both sides benefiting.

Kim is expected to travel to Vladivostok by armored train later this month.

It is likely that the North Korean leader and Putin will use their meeting to agree the transfer of North Korean munitions in return for Russian fuel and foodstuffs.

Just as significant as a trade, which will benefit both sides, will be the optics of the developing alliance, which comes shortly after Russia proposed trilateral naval exercises also including China. 

But Pyongyang, already under a raft of international sanctions for its nuclear weapons program, has so far repeatedly denied supplying arms to Russia.

“The North originally got their shells from the Soviet Union and through China and have continued to manufacture this sort of ammunition, meaning they have huge stockpiles and they can keep making more,” said Gatling. “They will sell their inventory and while it may be old it will still be effective and, for the North, valuable because these shells will allow them to bring in food and oil. 

“To me, it’s clear that will strengthen both sides.” 

Julian Ryall is a Japan-based freelance journalist. This article was edited by Srinivas Mazumdaru, and is published courtesy of Deutsche Welle (DW).