The U.S. Government Should Stockpile More Critical Minerals
To best ensure the defense industrial base has adequate minerals for a high-intensity, long-duration U.S.-Chinese conflict, the National Defense Stockpile should contain enough critical minerals to satisfy three years of U.S. domestic demand. The U.S. government should prioritize stockpiling critical minerals in platforms and munitions likely to attrit in a U.S.-Chinese conflict and sourcing these minerals primarily from the United States and secondarily from U.S. allies.
Wischer and Little conclude:
For the long term… the U.S. government must grow the National Defense Stockpile by sourcing domestically produced critical minerals. Onshored mineral supply chains — from mine to market — are the most secure, especially during a conflict. While U.S. allies have significant mineral reserves, a U.S.-Chinese conflict would disrupt global supply lines, endangering U.S. access to overseas critical minerals. By purchasing domestically sourced and produced minerals, the U.S. government would incentivize domestic mineral production, which would help ensure supply access during a conflict. Notably, the Strategic and Critical Materials Stock Piling Act of 1939 — the original governing National Defense Stockpile statute — stated that the stockpile has a dual purpose of both supporting the industrial base and growing domestic mineral production. It says the stockpile would “provide for the acquisition of stocks of certain strategic and critical materials of which the natural resources of the United States were deficient or insufficiently developed to supply the industrial, military, and naval needs of the country for the common defense and to encourage the development of mines and deposits of these materials within the United States.” And for those minerals that it cannot sufficiently source domestically, the U.S. government should prioritize sourcing minerals from its allies: primarily Canada, which is closest to the United States and has large mineral reserves; secondly Australia, which also has large mineral reserves but whose sea lines of communication would be vulnerable to disruption in a U.S.-Chinese conflict; and then other allies.
Before and after a potential conflict, the National Defense Stockpile should act as a market buffer, similar to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, by offering lower mineral prices to the defense industrial base when high mineral prices disrupt their production. As the top producer and buyer of many critical minerals, China — as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries does with oil — can influence global prices through production quotas and government subsidies. To mitigate severe market disruptions, the U.S. government should sell critical minerals to defense contractors during costly price spikes. While the governing statute of the National Defense Stockpile states that the stockpile can only be used for national defense, not economic, purposes, it also states that the stockpile should seek “to decrease and to preclude, when possible, a dangerous and costly dependence.” Accordingly, in October 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden noted in an executive order that the stockpile is a key tool for “ensuring that both the Federal Government and the private sector maintain adequate quantities of supplies, equipment, or raw materials on hand to create a buffer against potential shortages and import dependencies.”
Critical minerals form the bedrock of the defense industrial base, but the United States relies heavily on China for many critical minerals despite significant military and economic risks from this dependence. Given the possibility of a high-intensity, long-duration U.S.-Chinese conflict that will attrite platforms and munitions containing critical minerals, the National Defense Stockpile has insufficient critical mineral stocks, which should be increased quickly. Ultimately, securing U.S. critical mineral supply chains will require other policies like subsidies for U.S. critical mineral projects, tariffs on critical mineral imports, and purchase commitments by the U.S. government for American mined and refined critical minerals. But increasing critical minerals in the National Defense Stockpile is the quickest and easiest step to increase mineral security for the defense industrial base — and prepare for a U.S.-Chinese conflict.
