Hunt for Answers Continues Over Chinese Ship's Suspected Role In Damaging Baltic Pipeline

“Whether this incident was intentional or not, it’s something that both Russia and China can benefit from,” said Arho Havren. “Even if the scale may be small, it once again diverts NATO’s attention and resources away from other global focal points.”

Russian authorities have denied any involvement in the incident and, on October 31, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said China was cooperating with the investigation.

“We have opened diplomatic discussions with the Chinese and also have started cooperation with Chinese authorities. And they have promised…that they want to [cooperate],” he said.

An Evolving Investigation
Finnish investigators said they have tried several times to contact the Chinese ship’s captain but have been unsuccessful, adding they have asked Chinese officials for assistance.

Marine Traffic, a website that provides real-time information on the movement of ships around the world, showed that NewNew Polar Bear is sailing back to China through Russian waters on the Northern Sea Route, an Arctic shipping lane that stretches roughly from Murmansk in the west to the Bering Strait in the east.

As reported by the Independent Barents Observer, a newspaper based in the Norwegian Arctic, the vessel changed the name of its operator before entering the Northern Sea Route. NewNew Polar Bear was previously granted permission to cross the waters with the operator Hainan Xin Xin Yang Shipping, but an updated document shows the ship is now tied to Torgmoll, a Russian-registered company with offices in Moscow and Shanghai.

Frank Juris, a researcher at Tallinn University, told RFE/RL that “the man-made damage to critical infrastructure at NATO’s eastern flank with Chinese and Russia affiliated vessels in close proximity” does raise the prospect of potential “coordination and cooperation between China and Russia,” but that the continued investigation by Finnish law enforcement will determine the true cause.

As Finnish authorities enter the next phase of their investigation, photos have been shared online by the Russian website Port News that appear to show the Chinese vessel without one of its anchors. The October 9 photos show the ship at port in St. Petersburg — one day after the pipeline was damaged.

The images then circulated online and were published by Yle, the Finnish national broadcaster, appearing to show one of the ship’s anchors missing.

Mikko Heikkila, an experienced sea captain who has analyzed the photos for Yle, said that, if such an anchor were to be lowered accidentally, it is unlikely it would be unnoticed by the ship’s crew.

Lowering the bow anchor on cargo ships like the NewNew Polar Bear, he said, usually must be done manually from the bow of the ship and the process has several safeguards in place to prevent accidents from occurring.

Heikkila added that, if the ship was intentionally trying to damage the pipeline with the anchor, then doing so would be a slow, time-consuming, and risky process that would require stopping the ship.

The Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat reported that the NewNew Polar Bear came to a halt shortly before crossing the underwater gas pipeline.

Accident or Sabotage?
The evolving case has put Finland and its neighbors on alert.

The Nordic country joined NATO earlier this year in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the transatlantic military alliance has pledged a “united and determined response” if the Balticconnector pipeline damage is determined to have been sabotage.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on October 24 that the alliance’s members had “tens of thousands of kilometers” of submarine Internet cables, power cables, and pipelines from the Baltic to the Mediterranean at risk.

“Of course, these types of undersea critical infrastructure are vulnerable,” Stoltenberg said, adding that NATO has stepped up patrols in the Baltic and is currently working with the private sector, which “owns most of this critical infrastructure” to better coordinate a response.

The $318 million, 77-kilometer pipeline that connects Finland to the European gas network was launched for commercial use at the beginning of 2020. Balticconnector’s operators have said it will take at least five months to repair the pipeline and it is unlikely to come onstream before April.

The damage to the pipeline is unlikely to affect Finland’s energy security, however. The country currently only relies on natural gas for 5 percent of its energy supplies, with a growing reliance on renewables and nuclear power, as well as a recently opened liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal.

“Whether [at] the end of the day intentional sabotage can be proved or not, this case will at a minimum raise Finland’s preparedness for similar operations in the future,” Arho Havren said.

Reid Standish is an RFE/RL correspondent in Prague and author of the China in Eurasia briefing. This article is reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).