Does Australia Have the Will to Develop the Next Critical Mineral at Scale?
The forces of demand driven by the global energy transition and supply limited by geopolitics are coalescing to make yet another mineral globally ‘critical’—uranium. Australia’s rich economic geology has endowed it with the world’s biggest uranium resources. Yet Australians have a long-term aversion to uranium mining.
The forces of demand driven by the global energy transition and supply limited by geopolitics are coalescing to make yet another mineral globally ‘critical’—uranium.
Australia’s rich economic geology has endowed it with the world’s biggest uranium resources. Yet we have a long-term aversion to uranium mining driven in no small part by fears among many people stemming from the Cold War era when nuclear Armageddon was a persistent worry, periodically reinforced by civil reactor accidents.
A full generation on, it’s time for a national conversation on consistent policies under which we could expand uranium production and help meet the global demand for materials that will help the world transition to a low carbon economy. This conversation must be underpinned by science and must acknowledge the negative global impacts of a ‘not in my back yard’ driven attitude.
After decades of changeable and inconsistent policy, state and federal governments need to marshal the collective will if we are to maximize the potential contribution of Australia’s uranium to global decarbonization, and to take advantage of booming price projections and economic opportunity. This will take a coordinated overhaul of their approach, with the goal of nationally consistent policies based on science as well as Australia’s 60 years’ experience of safe uranium production.
In November 2023, 22 COP28 summit countries pledged to triple nuclear electricity production by 2050. Individually, China’s nuclear growth is expected to move faster, tripling by 2040. The global need for uranium is set to multiply as a result.
In early 2024, Japan added uranium to its list of critical minerals, responding to greater demand driven by the restarting of nuclear power generation suspended in the wake of the Fukushima accident in 2011, and potential restrictions on supply, especially from Russia.
In 2023, the United States Department of Energy also assessed uranium as meeting criteria for inclusion on the US critical materials list for the energy transition, but it is not currently included because legislation proscribes ‘fuel minerals’ from being added.
Fast-rising global demand and looming US restrictions on imports of Russian uranium have doubled uranium spot prices in the past year to exceed US$100 a pound, the highest level in 12 years. Multi-year price projections are bullish, ranging from close to or more than that level.
