IRAN’S THREATIts Deterrence Strategy Weakened, Iran Faces Pressure to Hit Israel
Iran’s strategy of deterrence against Israel has suffered greatly since the outbreak of the Gaza war — particularly after the brazen attack on its consulate in the Syrian capital on April 1. the deadly strike on its consulate in Damascus may compel Iran to take direct action, experts say.
Iran’s strategy of deterrence against Israel has suffered greatly since the outbreak of the Gaza war — particularly after the brazen attack on its consulate in the Syrian capital on April 1.
Eighteen members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including key generals, have been killed in Syria in suspected Israeli strikes since early December. But Iran has refrained from directly responding to Israel, instead opting to increase its support for the “Axis of Resistance” — its network of allies and proxies in the region — to take the fight to Israel.
But the deadly strike on its consulate in Damascus may compel Iran to take direct action, experts say.
Nestled between the Iranian and Canadian embassies, the building housing Iran’s consulate and the ambassador’s residence were reportedly struck by six missiles and demolished. Seven members of the IRGC, including top Quds Force General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, were killed.
Iranian officials, as they normally do, have vowed vengeance, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowing on April 2 that Israel would be “punished by our courageous men.”
Though the threats by Tehran are usually idle, analysts say this time Iranians might have to make good on their pledge.
“Iran doesn’t have many good options, but [the April 1] attack could force its hand,” said Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
First ‘Israeli’ Attack On Iranian Diplomatic Premises
Past attacks on Iranian interests in Syria allegedly carried out by Israel have targeted military installations used by the IRGC and its affiliates. The April 1 strike was the first on an Iranian diplomatic compound.
Iranian Ambassador to Syria Hossein Akbari told state television after the attack that three of those killed had diplomatic credentials.
Iran has accused Israel of contravening international law and has demanded global condemnation. It has also requested a UN Security Council meeting.
Israel has long practiced a policy of not commenting on air strikes in Syria.
Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said the building hit was used by the Quds Force, the expeditionary wing of the IRGC that has been designated a terrorist entity by the United States.
He said the attack was part of Israel’s strategy of “escalating matters with Iran in an attempt to put pressure on the head of the snake, as Israel sees it.”
