H1N1 remains relatively mild as vaccine production advances

shots being tested in the United States, according to Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Initial results are expected sometime in the next two weeks.

The WHO has warned that there is not enough production capacity to produce shots for the world’s entire population. About twenty-five companies are making H1N1 pandemic vaccines, including Sanofi Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline, and Novartis. The United States has ordered 195 million doses from five companies, and is expected to take delivery of the first 45 million to 52 million doses in mid-October.

McKay and Fairclough note that WHO has asked vaccine manufacturers to set aside at least 10 percent of their vaccine production for the developing world, and is talking with governments, as well as potential nongovernmental donors, about helping poor countries obtain vaccine. The WHO is trying “to do whatever we can to improve access in developing and poor countries to vaccine. This is a high priority for us,” said Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s assistant director-general for health security and environment.

So far, though, only two companies have agreed to donate doses for developing nations, according to the WHO: Sanofi with 100 million doses, and GlaxoSmithKline with 50 million. The agency is also trying to obtain a portion of H1N1 vaccine production from other manufacturers at reduced prices, and is providing seed financing and technical assistance to eleven vaccine manufacturers in developing countries.

China is among the countries the WHO is pressing to donate vaccine for the developing world. China says that by the end of the year its vaccine manufacturers will produce enough vaccine for about 65 million people — or about 5 percent of its population. That would exceed China’s usual seasonal flu-vaccination rate.

Demand for the vaccine is potentially vast in China. The country’s work force plays a critical role in world manufacturing, and the global economy could be affected if large numbers of Chinese become ill. Some scientists also fear that if H1N1 were to spread in China’s huge population, chances would increase that it could mix with other viruses such as avian influenza and become more deadly.

Mao Qunan, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Health, said experts are discussing how to allocate the vaccine and which groups of people should have priority for immunization, which he said should “start as soon as possible.” He said Beijing as yet has no specific plans about providing vaccine outside China, but that “we will do our best” to help other developing countries.

Liu Peicheng, a spokesman for Sinovac, said specific plans for the distribution and use of its vaccine would be decided by the government. “The priority is to meet the domestic demand. The surplus will be provided to other countries,” he said. Sinovac is supposed to supply five million doses of the vaccine by 1 October, and annual capacity would be 20 million to 30 million doses, the company said.