Influenza pandemic could cost Canadian economy $9 billion

In Canada they are increasingly worried about the economic effects of avian flu. Results of a national survey show that 54 percent of critical industry workers would be uncomfortable going to work if several people in their city or town were diagnosed with pandemic influenza. More than 90 percent of respondents, though, said that they would be more likely to report to work if they knew their employer had plans to provide them with preventative flu medicines. Guy Holburn, associate professor at the University of Western Ontario’s Richard Ivey School of Business, estimates that this level of absenteeism amongst critical industry workers, and the domino effect on other businesses, could cost the Canadian economy $9 billion. “This survey indicates that a pandemic flu outbreak would create an immediate and substantial negative impact on the economy, caused by high levels of absenteeism amongst critical infrastructure workers,” said Holburn. Only a minority of the labor force would miss work due to illness, but a substantial proportion would not report to work due to concerns about exposure and possible infection. “The impact of this level of absenteeism in these critical industries would have a significant negative multiplier effect on the short-term performance of most other businesses, and $9 billion is likely a conservative estimate,” said Holburn. “Economic activity in all industries depends on the reliable functioning of critical infrastructure sectors such as electricity, telecommunications, and transportation. We tend to take these for granted, but without them the whole economy could grind to a stand-still.”

The survey also finds that workers who are aware of a pandemic plan at

their workplace are more likely to report for duty than workers with no

knowledge of a pandemic plan. Only a quarter of respondents, however — 24 percent — indicated that their employer had a pandemic plan in place. “The creation and communication of pandemic plans, as well as the provision of preventative flu medicines, would encourage workers to report for work, enabling businesses and the broader economy to function more effectively,” said Holburn. The survey included utility and regional/city workers, transportation workers (including public transit, trucking, shipping, and courier), banking, communication providers (telephone, mobile, cable, and IT), grocery/food warehousing and medical product manufacturers (including pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, warehousing and distribution). Together, these sectors account for approximately 20 percent of the economy — valued at more than $220 billion in 2006 and employing more than 3 million workers. The national survey, conducted by Leger Marketing and sponsored by GlaxoSmithKline, used a combination of telephone and online interviews with 1,300 workers in fields which are considered critical services sectors, and with 700 workers in healthcare fields. More key findings are included at the end of the release under “Note to the Editor”.

As people worry about whether or not their companies have preparedness plans, they should also worry about drug-resistant viruses. Antiviral resistance is an important factor in planning for a pandemic. In response to recent reports that some strains of the H5N1 virus are resistant to oseltamivir (marketed under the trade name Tamiflu), the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has changed its stockpiling strategy to decrease the share of oseltamivir from 90 to 80 percent and increase the share of zanamivir (marketed under trade name Relenza) from 10 to 20 percent. In the United Kingdom, an influential group of scientists has recommended the government modify the national stockpile to 50 percent zanamivir and 50 percent oseltamivir.

History shows that influenza pandemics have occurred three to four times

per century. Scientists believe pandemic flu viruses develop in two key

ways. First, a new subtype can result from the mixing (or “re-assortment”) of human and avian viruses, which is what scientists believe started the last two influenza pandemics in 1957 and 1968. Because humans had no defense against the new strain, it spread rapidly around the globe, causing widespread illness and higher rates of death compared to seasonal influenza. These pandemics each resulted in more than one million deaths globally. Second, a new pandemic strain can develop if an avian influenza virus changes (or mutates) into a virus that can cause human illness and spread easily from person to person. This is likely how the “Spanish flu” killed between 40 and 50 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919, including about 50,000 in Canada.