Crisis in Egypt Middle East upheavals complicate U.S. counterterrorism efforts
If the democratic surge in Egypt causes Islamist organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood to join the government, the toughest counterterrorism challenge ahead may come as U.S. officials are forced to work with this new government, seeking common ground against terrorist enemies even if the Islamic faction tries to distance Egypt from its neighbor, Israel; American political leaders have long fused counterterror aims with support for Israel, but even those Arabs — let alone more religious Islamist organizations such as the Brotherhood — who oppose al Qaeda and jihadism, insist on the distinction between terrorism, on the one hand, and what they consider as a legitimate resistance to continued Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands; contending with an altered Arab world landscape with rising Islamic factions could thus force hard choices on the United States
Street protests, like this in Yemen, spread across the region // Source: cpj.org
The unrest engulfing Arab streets and threatening authoritarian governments is complicating U.S. counterterrorism efforts, scrambling the volatile battleground against al Qaeda in Yemen, and raising concerns about the durability of Egypt’s stance against militants.
U.S. counterterrorism officials need to move quickly to firm up relationships with veteran Mideast intelligence and security services in the aftermath of momentous changes, experts say. Lingering confusion over who will take the reins of power could hamper instant decision-making in the short term.
Over the longer term, will the United States be able to work as closely against al Qaeda and other terrorist groups if important allies such as Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh cede power to Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood?
“Right now the situation is so fluid it’s just about impossible to make any determinations about long-term repercussions,” said Roger Cressey, a former counterterrorism deputy in the Clinton and second Bush administrations. “The counterterrorism community has to be cautious about even jumping six months ahead.”
Fox News reports that uncertainty about whether the United States can depend on Arab allies to join against militants comes amid growing American concerns following a string of failed attacks plotted in Yemen and al Qaeda’s home base inside Pakistan. Less reliance on Mideast partners could force the United States to strike back on its own there, if a future terrorist attack were to succeed.
“The next time American interests are attacked and there’s a return address in Yemen, the U.S. may have to act unilaterally,” said Christopher Boucek, an expert with the Washington, D.C.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
U.S. counterterrorism officials worry that continuing demonstrations in the Yemeni capital in Sana’a could lead the country’s security forces to focus more on protecting the government, giving breathing room to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, suspected in plots against the United States in recent months.
Some street protests have come from pro-democracy elements, Boucek said. Others have been stirred by Islamic fundamentalist and secessionist groups already arrayed against Saleh’s government.
In a sign of the mounting alarm about Yemen’s role as a terrorist staging area, President Barack Obama told Saleh on the phone this past week about the need for “forceful action” against the al Qaeda affiliate. Obama did praise “the significant reform measures” that Saleh ordered to defuse the protests.
Obama also took the unusual step of publicly chiding Saleh for releasing Abd-Ilah al-Shai, a sympathizer of the
