TRUMP-PROOFING GLOBAL SECURITYTrump-proofing NATO: Why Europe’s Current Nuclear Deterrents May Not Be Enough to Face Biggest Threats Since WWII
NATO’s concerns about Trump’s re-election were heightened by his flippant comment in February that he would encourage Russia to do whatever it wanted, if certain countries didn’t pay up, defying NATO’s principle that an attack on one constituted an attack on all. Trump’s comments represent a seismic departure for US foreign policy. No US president has made these types of threats before about its commitment to NATO, and this has forced Europe to prepare to deal with Russian aggression without US support.
Though a second Trump presidency is not a foregone conclusion, NATO members are gearing up to Trump-proof the organization and reviewing their defense strategies.
NATO’s concerns about Trump’s re-election were heightened by his flippant comment in February that he would encourage Russia to do whatever it wanted, if certain countries didn’t pay up, defying NATO’s principle that an attack on one constituted an attack on all.
Trump’s comments represent a seismic departure for US foreign policy. No US president has made these types of threats before about its commitment to NATO, and this has forced Europe to prepare to deal with Russian aggression without US support.
Ahead of NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington DC in July, this has become so concerning that one of the major parties in the European parliament, the European People’s Party has called on Europe to build its own nuclear umbrella without the US.
Of course, this is all coming to a head at a time when the west is facing the biggest threat to its security since the second world war, making the discussions about NATO’s nuclear shield more salient.
Although Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in this conflict in Ukraine, some experts are warning that assuming that NATO’s current nuclear deterrence is sufficient is foolhardy.
Putin has made it clear that Russia is prepared and willing to use nuclear weapons, if necessary. Putin may believe that a limited use of nuclear weapons would not escalate the war enough to involve the US, making it more likely that Russia could dip into its nuclear arsenal in its next conflict to gain a huge advantage (or possibly at a later stage in the current one).
Nuclear Decisions
The logic of nuclear deterrence assumes that all actors are rational, have full information and can use that information to predict what others will do.
Putin has shown that he is a risk taker with poor military intelligence, leading to massive miscalculations, particularly if NATO remains complacent.
Putin may also assume that the US under Trump would be mostly preoccupied with domestic political opponents, giving Russia the chance to push ahead and do whatever it wants. Recently leaked documents from Russian military files have shown that its threshold for using nuclear weapons is surprisingly low, particularly if conventional methods aren’t working.
