• Nuclear shelters

    During the cold war, scientists modeled every imaginable consequence of a nuclear explosion. Michael Dillon, a Lawrence Livermore Lab mathematician, found a gap in the sheltering strategies for people far enough from ground zero to survive the initial blast but close enough to face deadly radioactive fallout. Dillon’s model’s addresses the most vulnerable people, those who found shelter from the blast in lightweight buildings, or buildings lacking a basement (these buildings are more easily penetrated by deadly radioactive dust). His recommendations:  if adequate shelter is fifteen minutes away, people should remain in their initial, poor-quality shelter no longer than thirty minutes after detonation. If the better shelter is only five minutes away, however, individuals should move there immediately, leaving the closer but unsafe buildings altogether.

  • Surveillance

    There are two questions about the NSA’s bulk information collection programs: are these programs legal? Are they effective? On the second questions, supporters of the programs say these surveillance measures are essential, and as proof they claim these programs helped thwart more than fifty potential terrorist attacks in more than twenty countries around the world. A new in-depth analysis shows, however, that these claims are overblown and even misleading. The study of 225 individuals recruited by al-Qaeda, or a like-minded group, or inspired by al-Qaeda’s ideology, and charged in the United States with an act of terrorism since 9/11, demonstrates that traditional investigative methods provided the initial impetus for investigations in the majority of cases, while the contribution of NSA’s bulk surveillance programs to these cases was minimal.

  • Winter Games

    While the upcoming Winter Olympics in Sochi will likely be secure, other parts of Russia may come under attack as rebels attempt to grab the global spotlight, experts say. “Muslim separatists would like to draw attention away from the Olympics as well as demonstrate that their struggle continues and that they haven’t been defeated,” Duke’s Michael Newcity says. “Since the Olympic Games are very much a vanity project for Russian President Vladimir Putin, it wouldn’t surprise me to see more bombings — perhaps not at the Olympics, since security will be so tight — but more likely in other parts of Russia.”

  • Iraq

    The number of deaths in Iraq from attacks by extremist groups operating under the banner of Islam has been growing steadily since the withdrawal of American troops in 2011. In 2013, nearly 8,900 people died in extremist attacks. The level of casualties has been taken as an indicator of extremist political and military strength. This dreadful statistic is not just the result of the loss of American military, intelligence and political support. As evidenced by recent insurgent activity in Fallujah and Ramadi, Iraq now faces an assault on its sovereign integrity that is testing the organs of the state.

  • Terrorism

    One of the arguments the Scottish National Party (SNP) makes for Scottish independence from the United Kingdom is that the risk of al-Qaeda-inspired terrorism against Scotland would diminish if Scotland were no longer associated with U.K. foreign policy. A senior cabinet member dismissed these assertions, pointing out that Islamic extremists have attacked smaller states in Europe, including Nordic countries like Sweden and Denmark, which the SNP regularly suggest as a model for an independent Scotland. James Brokenshire, the U.K. security minister, said that while the risk of terrorism against Scotland would not diminish, Scottish independence would make it harder for Police Scotland to fight serious organized crime.

  • Border Security

    TECS is the primary DHS system that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) personnel use to screen foreigners against a variety of watchlists, and it manages case files for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). ICE assignments tracked include money-laundering probes, online pornography investigations, and phone data analyses. A GAO audit last month found that the planned $1.5 billion upgrade to TECS now has no foreseeable end-date or final cost estimate.

  • Bioterrorism

    The recent discovery of a new strain of botulism, the first in forty years, has alarmed California state health officials. The discovery was published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases in October 2013 — but the genetic sequence of the botulism toxin was removed from the report. The decision to withhold the sequencing information took into consideration the fact that there is currently no antitoxin capable of treating an outbreak of botulism, and that it takes about one to two years to develop an antitoxin. Should the classified information reach the wrong hands, a bioweapon, which can be spread as an aerosol, could be used to cause mass-casualty epidemic.

  • Intelligence sharing

    Ryan Shapiro, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Ph.D. candidate, filed a lawsuit yesterday (Tuesday) against the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) over the spy agency’s failure to comply with his Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for records on the late Nelson Mandela. Shapiro wants to know why the CIA viewed Mandela as a threat to American security, and what actions the agency took to thwart Mandela’s efforts to advance racial justice and democracy in South Africa.

  • Winter Games

    The Russian authorities are on high alert following the recent attacks in Volgograd. With the Winter Olympics in Sochi opening on 7 February, there are serious concerns that spectators and athletes will be targets of future attacks. Russia’s most wanted terrorist, Doku Umarov, recently declared that he is prepared to use “maximum force” to prevent the Olympics from occurring.

  • Winter Games

    Counter-terrorism experts say that the two terror attacks in Volgograd, Russia on Sunday, 28 December and Monday, 29 December, are probes by terrorists in advance of larger attacks against the Winter Olympics in Sochi. Especially worrisome to Russian security services is the growing reliance by terrorist organizations on Russian Muslims, or Slavs who converted to Islam, to carry out suicide attacks, as they can move about in many parts of Russia without drawing attention.

  • African security

    A terror group active in West Africa has threatened it would target the interests of “France and her allies” in retaliation for France’s military intervention in Mali last year. In November, the United States added the group — Groupe des Mourabitounes de l’Azawad (GMA) – to the list of foreign terrorist organizations. The Mourabitounes group was formed in August, when veteran terrorist Mokhtar Belmokhtar officially joined forces with the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (Mouvement pour l’unicité et le jihad en Afrique de l’Ouest [MUJAO]), a radical al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group that once controlled part of northern Mali and has claimed responsibility for a series of attacks in the Gao region since France intervened in Mali in early 2013.

  • Terrorism

    A judge in Dublin has ordered Adam Busby, founder of the of the Scottish National Liberation Army (SNLA) – members of the SNLA are also known as the “Tartan terrorists” – extradited to Scotland for threatening to poison former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, himself a Scot, and contaminate the water supplies of English cities. Busby, who has been living in Ireland since 1980, argues that forcing him to stand trial in Scotland would constitute “abuse” because he would likely face a much higher penalty if tried in a U.K. court than if he were prosecuted in Ireland. He has now appealed to Ireland’s Supreme Court against the extradition.

  • Terrorism

    Colleen LaRose, a 50-year old Pennsylvania woman whose online name was “Jihad Jane,” yesterday (Monday) was sentenced to ten years in prison for a plot to kill a Swedish artist who, she believed, had insulted Islam. LaRose was described as a “lonely and isolated” woman who joined the jihadist cause out of boredom. Prosecutors said she took part in a 2009 plot to kill artist Lars Vilks over his series of drawings which depicted the Muslim prophet Muhammad as a dog.

  • Infectious disease

    Preoccupation with hypothetical bioterrorism attacks is leaving America more vulnerable to the threat of natural spread of deadly viruses. Since the 9/11 attacks, the federal government has poured billions of dollars to prevent and monitor threats of bioterrorism, yet the United States was ill-prepared for the swine flu outbreak of 2009. Experts say it is time to rebalance public health priorities so that preparations for the real threat of the outbreak of infectious diseases will not take a back seat to preparations for the more remote threat of bioterrorism.

  • Afghanistan

    Just a few months after American officials transferred control of all detention operations in Afghanistan to Afghan forces, President Hamid Karzai’s administration has decided to release dozens of prisoners, despite objection from American and Afghan officials.

  • African security

    Since last year, when they had to flee the intensifying violence across the Central African Republic, farming communities had to abandon their fields along the main roads to replant deep in the bush. This disruption led them to produce much less than in previous years, with a major impact on their food reserves, which will last till February instead of July. The success of the next planting season crucially hinges on the return of farming families to the fields. Families who are unable to plant in March will have to wait one whole year before they can hope to harvest again. Failure to plant in March will have dire consequences for the food security of the Central African Republic’s population.

  • Rail security

    The recent train station bombing in Volgograd, Russia has focused attention on the vulnerabilities of rail infrastructure. According to a recently published report by IHS, purchases of explosives, weapons, and contraband (EWC) detection equipment at rail stations worldwide is expected to increase by 3.3 percent in 2014, and 8.8 percent in 2015.

  • Terrorism

    In yet another sign of Hezbollah’s weakening position in Lebanon, a powerful car bomb exploded yesterday near the organization’s political headquarters in the Haret Hreik district of the suburb of Dahiyeh, the well-guarded Shi’a section in southern Beirut. The attack, which killed five and injured dozens, is the fifth such attack since July. Analysts say that the May decision by Hezbollah to send thousands of its fighters to Syria to fight against the Syrian rebels in order to save the Assad regime fatally undermined Hezbollah in Lebanon, proving its critics’ claims that Hezbollah was not much more than an instrument of Iran’s foreign policy, and that it was more loyal to its Shi’a identity than Lebanese interests. Hezbollah’s decision emboldened its Lebanese opponents, and convinced Saudi Arabia to throw its considerable weight behind the Lebanese forces determined to take Hezbollah down.

  • African security

    Canada, under its Criminal Code, has designated Boko Haram as a terrorist organization. The United States did so three weeks ago. The Canadian government also listed the Caucasus Emirate, a Dagestan-based Islamist group, as a terrorist organization. The group is blamed for the recent bombings in Volgograd.

  • Embassy security

    Jamal al-Jamal, the Palestinian ambassador to the Czech Republic, was killed yesterday in a blast at his home in Suchdol, an upscale suburb north of Prague. The blast is believed to have been caused by explosives stored in a safe. When he opened the safe, the explosives went off. Riad al-Maliki, the Palestinian foreign minister, said that the safe had not been opened in at least thirty years. The ambassador moved to the new building in October, and workers moved the safe, unopened, from the old offices of the Prague Palestinian mission to the new one at that time.