• An Analytic Framework for Assessing Risks of U.S. Post-Election Violence

    Today and the days ahead are the most consequential period for the United States in at least a generation. Kyle Murphy writes that when he served as a senior analyst for the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, heI developed frameworks to evaluate the risk of election-related instability overseas. “As a National Security Council staff member at the White House, I relied on similar tools to help prepare for and organize U.S. government support for nine elections in West Africa.” He applied these tools to this year’s U.S. presidential election.

  • Action-Led Alerts Effective in Natural Disasters

    Is an “evacuate now” text message more likely to initiate action by the receiver than “you will be impacted by a flood” in a natural disaster emergency such as bushfire and flood? “Words are powerful during natural hazard emergencies and it is important to use words and phrases that are understood to avoid panic, message desensitization, and guide safe risk assessment and response.”

  • The Terrorist Threat from the Fractured Far Right

    Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware argue that the right-wing threat is fracturing, with a wide range of overlapping groups and radical individuals posing a risk of violence that may overwhelm counterterrorism officials.

  • Easing Election-Related Tensions: Lessons for the U.S. from Elections Abroad

    Public officials and the news media have broken through the public consciousness with the message that the results of the election may not be known on the night of 3 November, potentially helping to ease tensions in the immediate aftermath. Rose Jackson writes that there has not, however, been sufficient messaging about what the voting and counting period will look like specifically in each state. “This lack of groundwork creates a dangerous potential for misunderstanding and malfeasance — and by extension, for dangerous disinformation.”

  • Trump and Biden Ignore How the War on Drugs Fuels Violence in Latin America

    Increasingly, people are crossing the U.S.-Mexico border to escape a cycle of violence to which the United States continues to contribute. Immigration is just the tip of the iceberg. Murder rates in Latin America have skyrocketed since the 1980s and are still among the highest in the world. This is because Latin America became the battleground for the war on drugs.

  • UN Watchdog Confirms New Construction at Iran's Natanz Nuclear Facility

    The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog agency said that Iran has begun construction of an underground centrifuge assembly plant near its nuclear facility at Natanz. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi said in an October 28 interview in Berlin that the facility seems to be a replacement for one that exploded in July in what Tehran called a sabotage attack.

  • Looking for Evidence of the Construction of Iran’s New Centrifuge Assembly Plant: New Possible Preparations Identified

    This summer, Iran decided to construct a new underground centrifuge assembly plant, following the destruction of the above ground one at the Natanz enrichment site on 2 July 2020. So far, Iran has undertaken little visible work in the mountains adjacent to the Natanz enrichment site with the exception of possible construction preparations. A nearby gunnery range appears to have been converted to a construction support and staging area in the first half of September. Because of the added difficulties of building an underground site, the completion of a new centrifuge assembly plant able to assemble thousands of advanced centrifuges per year is unlikely in 2021.

  • From Cold War to Gray War: Internet Conflict Intensifying

    A former top security adviser to Boris Johnson has revealed that Britain has launched recently a series of covert cyber-based attacks on Russian leaders and their interests to “impose a price greater than one they might have expected” for their cyber-offensive against the West. Other allied powers, including the U.S., are doing so, too, say Western intelligence officials in what is becoming a “like-for-like” cyber-conflict with the Kremlin in the so-called the “gray space,” the gap between normal state relations and armed conflict.

  • The Evolution of Domestic Terrorism in the United States

    White supremacists and other far-right extremists accounted for two-thirds of domestic terrorist attacks and plots so far in 2020, but those by antifascist and other leftist groups are rising, according to a new report on U.S. political violence. The Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has just released a report which found that domestic terrorism only accounted for five deaths between January and August. But it cites a worrisome trend in which armed far-right and far-left extremists are confronting one another on the streets of U.S. cities against the backdrop of racial justice protests, anti-lockdown demonstrations, and other social and political issues.

  • New Information on Syria’s Chemical Weapons Program

    A new report offers the most comprehensive investigative report to date on Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC), the entity at the heart of Syria’s chemical weapons program. The report contains new information on how the Syrian government orchestrated attacks using sarin, a banned nerve agent whose use is considered a war crime.

  • China Reports Spike in U.S. Surveillance Flights

    A reported spike in U.S. military flights over the seas near China reflects Washington’s drive to understand and deter Chinese expansion in contested waters, analysts say. U.S. military surveillance planes flew off China’s coast 60 times in September, more than in July or August, according to Chinese state-backed research organization South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative’s website.

  • Creating 3-D Maps of Complex Buildings for Disaster Management

    In case of an emergency, first responders like the fire brigade need up-to-date information. 2D maps are a common source of information but they can be difficult to read in an emergency situation. A researcher has created an algorithm that can accurately generate 3D models of the insides of large buildings from point clouds.

  • Simple Actions May Help People Survive Landslides

    An engineer who analyzed the aftermath of the March 2014 landslide in Oso, Washington, began to investigate the circumstances that can make landslides so deadly. The resulting study shows that certain human actions increase the chance of surviving a devastating event, and suggests simple behavioral changes could save more lives than expensive engineering solutions.

  • 68 Percent of Firearm Deaths Are from Self-Harm, Majority in Older Men in Rural Regions

    A new study of gun injuries and deaths in Ontario found that 68 percent of firearm-related deaths were from self-harm, and they most often occurred in older men living in rural regions, pointing to the need for targeted prevention efforts.

  • U.K. Government’s Tiered COVID-19 Alert Systems Are All Flawed, Warns Disaster Expert

    Alert systems need to be clear and easy for everyone to understand. Yet, to date, the UK’s national alert system has created confusion and been largely ignored. Now, a second local alert level system has been introduced in England. I’m not convinced it will do any better.