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No, Japan Is Not Ready for AUKUS
It is a natural strategic choice for Japan to join in advanced military technology cooperation under the trilateral Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) agreement – turning the alliance into “JAUKUS” – but there is a fundamental stumbling block: Japan’s lack of effective counter-espionage laws.
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International Partnership Focuses on Insider Threats
Insider threats can take many forms. They are real, and if not identified, they can be costly and damaging.
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Outsourcing Surveillance: A Cost-Effective Strategy to Maintain Maritime Supremacy
Persistent surveillance is one of the most valuable types of surveillance missions. But, Josh Portzer and Aaron Stein write, “Persistent surveillance is a challenging problem for two reasons: capacity and cost. In today’s budgetary climate, “simply increasing U.S. military capacity is not tenable. [But] by increasing the number of sensors globally, the Department of Defense would not only gain valuable, near-persistent surveillance data in areas of interest at (relatively) affordable prices, but also would enjoy the option of gray-zone operations given the strategic ambiguity that outsourcing provides.”
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How Do Civilians Respond to Political Violence?
When conflict breaks out, civilians inevitably suffer. But they do not react uniformly, with some fleeing, others staying, and still others joining the fray. Civilians’ perceptions of their own agency often shape their behavior. Aidan Milliff writes that this understanding has implications for policy: The United States and other countries, in their efforts to help civilians who face political violence, should focus more on changing these civilians’ perceptions.
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Preparing U.S., Partners for Radiological Response
After the September 11th attacks, security professionals worried that terrorists might detonate a “dirty bomb” – an explosive device enhanced with radiological source materials. Responders for this type of event had to be trained.
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The Path to Peace in Gaza Lies in Defeating Hamas
Israel cannot continue living with a Hamas-controlled Gaza. The untenability of having Hamas on Israel’s border has long been clear. However, to dismantle and disarm the group was always going to involve grievous civilian bloodshed and the inflaming of anti-Israeli opinion—a prohibitive proposition for Israel prior to 7 October. Yet now Israel finds itself facing this task anyway, which is a reminder to the world that tolerating the intolerable—even grudgingly, because the alternatives are too difficult—is never sustainable in the long term. This was demonstrated on 7 October.
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Regional Security Analysts Say Africa at Risk of Drone Terrorism
African terrorist groups are using global affiliations to acquire and modify drones for their own needs. Though the drones are not yet being used to launch attacks, the growing use of drones by terrorist groups is only a question of time, and analysts worry that in the long run, they could change the balance of power with governments.
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Japan Military Aid Expands Southeast Asia Footprint
A new security assistance scheme is allowing Japan to expand its role in helping smaller countries like the Philippines cope with China’s military ambitions.
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Hamas Isn’t the First Military Group to Hide Behind Civilians as a Way to Wage War
Using places and things civilians need, like hospitals, as a means to fight a war is considered a weapon of the weak. It is a way to use another side’s values against it. I think it is clear that Hamas has – in this war and historically – tried to embed themselves and weapons in places civilians live or visit, in order to make it more difficult for the Israelis to target them. But using civilians to further a military advantage is not a new phenomenon.
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Is the Fear of Cyberwar Worse Than Cyberwar Itself?
Unrealistic cyberwar expectations could hold the insurance industry back, and that’s the real economic security problem. The “hyperbolic characterization of cyberwar is likely a bigger problem than the threat of cyberwar itself. The problem is one of economic security,” Tom Johansmeyer writes.
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The Chinese Military’s Skyrocketing Influence in Space
China has already begun leading the world in military satellite launches, sending 45 defense-related satellites into orbit in 2022. That was 15 more than the US sent into orbit. While the People’s Liberation Army’s space plans are not reliably disclosed to the public, its actions make it clear that China has found its way to space, and it plans to stay.
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Civilian Deaths and Proportionality in the Israel–Hamas War
Hamas invites civilian casualties by its positioning of military assets, and now that it knows that Israel’s risk tolerance is well beyond anything it has seen before, it likely sees outcries over more civilian casualties leading to a ceasefire as its only chance of survival. And Washington hopes that Israel can inflict grievous damage on Hamas before the White House will have to acquiesce to public opinion and back some kind of ceasefire. Israel, Hamas and Washington are all accepting of civilian casualties in Gaza—they only differ in how many and why.
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Climate Change Is a National Security Risk
Climate change is affecting practically everything on Earth, from natural systems to human endeavors. National security is no exception. The U.S. Defense Department recognizes that climate change is a “threat multiplier” as it exacerbates existing environmental stresses and security risks.
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Hunt for Answers Continues Over Chinese Ship's Suspected Role In Damaging Baltic Pipeline
A Chinese ship suspected of damaging an underwater gas pipeline and two telecom cables in the Baltic Sea is returning to China through the Russian Arctic as Finnish investigators continue to search for answers about the vessel’s role in the incident.
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Al-Aqsa Storm Heralds the Rise of Non-state Special Operations
The surprise, brutal 7 October attack by Hamas has sent shockwaves around the world. Israel’s surprise was deeper than a combined intelligence and operational surprise. Leo Blanken, Ian Rice, and Craig Whiteside write that “It was failure of imagination.” What Israel missed “is the growing democratization of technology, which is rapidly providing new and dangerous capabilities to non-state actors.”
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More headlines
The long view
Tantalizing Method to Study Cyberdeterrence
Tantalus is unlike most war games because it is experimental instead of experiential — the immersive game differs by overlapping scientific rigor and quantitative assessment methods with the experimental sciences, and experimental war gaming provides insightful data for real-world cyberattacks.
Testing Cutting-Edge Counter-Drone Technology
Drones have many positive applications, bad actors can use them for nefarious purposes. Two recent field demonstrations brought government, academia, and industry together to evaluate innovative counter-unmanned aircraft systems.
European Arms Imports Nearly Double, U.S. and French Exports Rise, and Russian Exports Fall Sharply
States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France.
How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations
“People talk about climate change as a threat multiplier,” said Karen Sudkamp, an associate director of the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program within the RAND Homeland Security Research Division. “But at what point do we need to start talking about the threat multiplier actually becoming a significant threat all its own?”
The Tech Apocalypse Panic is Driven by AI Boosters, Military Tacticians, and Movies
From popular films like a War Games or The Terminator to a U.S. State Department-commissioned report on the security risk of weaponized AI, there has been a tremendous amount of hand wringing and nervousness about how so-called artificial intelligence might end up destroying the world. There is one easy way to avoid a lot of this and prevent a self-inflicted doomsday: don’t give computers the capability to launch devastating weapons.