World unprepared for "convergent crisis"
Specialists in disaster response say that nations are almost completely unprepared for the likely emergence of so-called convergent crises with the potential to plunge markets and regions into prolonged turmoil; in these multi-faceted disasters, strains like a shrinking Arctic ice cap, theft of nuclear materials, oil or water shortages, or cyber crime would worsen tensions among nations over traditional issues such as trade, territory, and resources
Following the earthquakes in Haiti earlier in the year, and the floods in Pakistan more recently, aid experts began publicly to talk about a need to address a pressing issue: what should international bodies do when natural disasters strike in countries that are not only impoverished, but in which governments are corrupt, ineffective, and indifferent to the welfare of their own people.
The idea has been floated that the UN should create an international force of Green Helmets dedicated to rushing aid to poor countries in the aftermath of natural disasters. Just as the UN Blue Helmets serve as peace keepers in troubled border areas, so the Green Helmets, with pre-positioned supplies and materiel and with civilian experts in disaster relief accompanying the soldiers, would guarantee a robust international response to natural disasters.
Security experts are now calling for examining the ability of international bodies to responde to security threats. Just imagine the following events:
- Unidentified attackers detonate a “dirty” bomb in the Strait of Hormuz, in minutes disrupting global trade and shipping and devastating financial markets.
- A German trawler collides with a Chinese warship in the newly opened Arctic.
- Devastating floods hit a weapons bunker in nuclear-armed Pakistan, raising fears for atomic security.
Experts say that the world’s cold war-era security institutions are not up to managing any one of these crises, in which systemic problems like climate change worsen traditional security flashpoints.
Reuters reports that these experts say that current institutions are either too cumbersome or perceived as lacking legitimacy. The UN Security Council, the Group of 20 (G20) rich and developing nations, and multilateral humanitarian bodies would struggle to make a rapid impact.
Specialists in disaster response say that nations are almost completely unprepared for the likely emergence of so-called convergent crises with the potential to plunge markets and regions into prolonged turmoil.
In these multi-faceted disasters, strains like a shrinking Arctic ice cap, theft of nuclear materials, oil or water shortages, or cyber crime would worsen tensions among nations over traditional issues such as trade, territory, and resources.
“Old” and “new” tensions would feed off each other, spurring nationalistic stances in world capitals. Losing faith in collective action, nations could blunder toward conflict.
“Diplomatic practice has not kept up with these complex threats,” said Pauline Baker, president of the Fund for Peace, a non-profit group that seeks to prevent conflict. “We need a new international architecture of crisis prevention and response.”
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