U.S. gov.’s climate assessment: U.S. already suffering severe consequences of climate change

The new report also starkly highlights the billions of dollars of economic losses that are already occurring from climate-related events. Just a few startling examples:

·  Flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers in 2011, triggered by heavy rainfall, caused an estimated $5.7 billion (in 2018 dollars) in damages.

·  Drought in 2012 caused widespread agricultural losses to crops and livestock, and low water levels along the Mississippi affected transportation of goods along the river, resulting in an estimated $33 billion (in 2018 dollars) in damages nationwide.

·  The costs of rebuilding Puerto Rico’s electricity infrastructure, which was badly damaged by hurricanes Irma and Maria, have been estimated to be $17 billion (in 2017 dollars).

·  Annual federal fire fighting costs have ranged from $809 million to $2.1 billion per year between 2000 and 2016.

·  In 2012 and 2013, massive wildfires followed by floods in the Fort Collins, CO area washed out transportation infrastructure and caused $2 billion (in 2013 dollars) in total damages.

·  In 2012, sea surface temperatures in the Northeast continental shelf rose about 3.6F above the 1982-2011 average (an extreme manifestation of a warming trend observed in the area), triggering a glut of lobster and causing a severe price collapse.

·  The city of Charleston has estimated that each high-tide flooding event that affects the cross-town costs $12.4 million and over the past 50 years the resultants gross damages and lost wages have totaled over $1.53 billion.

·  Climate changes—including sea level rise, diminishing snowpack, wildfires and drought—are significantly affecting the traditional subsistence activities, livelihoods and sacred cultural resources of indigenous peoples. In some cases, they are even being forced to consider relocation.

There are also many examples of costs that are hard to quantify in just dollar terms but are surely significant, including harms to human health (both physical and mental), ecosystems and assets of cultural value.

Costs will mount with unchecked climate change
Across the nation, many economic sectors—including agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism—are at risk from a warming climate. Much of our nation’s infrastructure—roads, bridges, ports, airports, water and waste water systems, electricity infrastructure, dams—which underpins our economy and way of life is also greatly exposed. Even without climate change, aging infrastructure and decades of under-investment already pose significant challenges; climate change will magnify them.

As the report says, the assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid. We will need to prepare for a climate-altered future.

As climate change worsens, some major challenges to our society and economy will likely include:

·  Decreases and variability in water availability in some parts of the country, including the Southwest.

·  Increases in extreme precipitation in some parts of the country (such as the Midwest and Great Plains), causing flooding and infrastructure damage

·  Accelerating sea level rise, putting at risk homes, infrastructure and other valuable assets in the coastal floodplain.

·  By the middle of the century, the annual area burned in the U.S. could increase 2-6 times from the present, depending on the geographic area, ecosystem and local climate, with the western US and Alaska at particular risk.

·  Coral reefs in the US Caribbean, Hawaii, Florida and the US Pacific islands are already affected by bleaching and disease. The loss of recreational benefits alone from coral reefs in the US could reach $140 billion by 2100.

·  According to one study, $1 trillion in national wealth held in coastal real estate is at risk of rising seas. (A recent UCS study also found that high-tide flooding could put over 300,000 coastal homes and commercial properties in the lower 48 states with a collective market value of about $136 billion in today’s dollars at risk within the next 30 years. By the end of the century, over 2.5 million homes and commercial properties currently worth more than $1 trillion altogether could be at risk).

·  Worsening health impacts including increased mortality and morbidity from worsening heatwaves and ozone pollution and pollution from wildfires. Risks of allergic illnesses and vector-borne diseases (i.e. borne by vectors like ticks and mosquitoes) such as Lyme disease could also worsen in some parts of the country.

·  Inland flooding is anticipated to result in average annual damages to bridges of $1.2 to $1.4 billion each year by 2050. Nationally, the total annual damages from temperature and precipitation to paved roads could be as high at $20 billion in 2090 under a high emissions scenario.

·  Growing risks of compound extreme events—where more than one hazard occurs at the same time in the same place— and cascading infrastructure failures which can multiply risks to people, the environment and the economy.

·  Pressures on the energy system, including increased demand for electricity as heatwaves worsen, power failures caused by storms and flooding, system failures and inefficiencies caused by extreme heat, and reduced availability of water for hydroelectric systems.

·  Disproportionate risks to low-income communities, tribal communities and communities of color who may be more exposed to climate impacts and may have fewer resources to cope with them.

Our emissions choices matter (greatly!)
The NCA also includes information about the costs of climate change under different emissions scenarios, making clear that limiting emissions can make a huge difference in climate-related damages and costs. Many of these estimates come from a ground-breaking underlying study by the EPA released last year.

For example, health-related impacts and costs could be 50 percent lower under a low emissions scenario (RCP4.5) v. a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Damages to roads and electricity infrastructure can be reduced by about 60 percent. Under RCP8.5, almost 1.9 billion labor hours across the national workforce are projected to be lost annually by 2090 due to the effects of extreme temperature on suitable working conditions, totaling over $160 billion in lost wages per year; Under RCP4.5, about 50 percent of this could be avoided. (These estimates generally do not include assumptions about adaptation).

Food and farms
Marcia DeLonge, senior scientist at UCS, summarizes the report’s finding with regard to food and farms. She writes that the NCA4 sends a sobering message that things likely won’t get easier anytime soon. She notes, however, that it is also clear that farmers have agency on climate change matters, and could play a pivotal role to make things better.

Climate impacts on agriculture are dire and getting worse
Building on the most recent version (2014), the overarching message of the new report for agriculture is unambiguous: climate change is already impacting farms and ranches nationwide, and there are many challenges ahead. The voluminous document is filled with important details, but here are some top takeaways:

1. The farm and food system as we know it is transforming before our eyes, and the productivity we’ve benefited from is in jeopardy. Year by year, increasing temperatures, shifting rainfall, and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are messing with farming basics–like growing seasons, pollination, and more. As conditions deteriorate for some crops, many weeds and pests are expected to thrive, cutting deeper into productivity. For farms along the coast, sea level rise and salt intrusion are encroaching, creating additional strains. As a result of multiple forces, significant declines in productivity of livestock and major crops, such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, and cotton, are expected within the century.

2. Extreme events are devastating farms and ranches, and rapidly getting worse. Extreme rains, droughts, and fires cause costly damage and disrupt farmers’ capacity to adapt to the steady pulse of more gradual changes. For instance, heavy rainfall drowns crops and flushes valuable soils and fertilizers into waterways. Increasing frequency and duration of droughts can wreak havoc on crops, livestock and dwindling water resources. And in increasingly warm and dry conditions, wildfires are becoming more frequent and damaging throughout grasslands and forests, many of which are used for, among other things, the important agricultural activity of livestock grazing.

3. Climate change is contributing to deteriorating soil and water quality, entrenching challenges that have ripple effects felt far beyond farms. As heavy rainfall pummels farms and sweeps soils and fertilizers off fields, polluted water travels to rivers, streams, lakes, and oceans where it contributes to toxic algal blooms and dead zones. The effects of such water quality woes have already translated to decades of costly problems in the US, including contaminated drinking water, impaired fisheries and recreation industries, and damaged rural infrastructure. Not to mention the fact that excess water running off of farms can contribute to flooding and destruction in communities far downstream.

4. In farming communities across the country, lives and livelihoods are on the line, with some populations suffering disproportionate risk. Climate change poses serious health and safety risks to agricultural workers, who are increasingly exposed to extreme heat, which can cause heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and heart attacks, with additional implications for lost wages and livelihoods (the NCA4 reports that heat stress in outdoor workers will lead to an estimated 2 billion labor hours and billions of dollars in wages lost annually by 2090). Combined with declining yields and deteriorating natural resources, these factors will put additional stress on agricultural and rural communities, many of which already experience high levels of poverty, unemployment, and other challenges. To make matters worse, critical infrastructure, such as for communication, transportation, and water, are all at risk. And, some groups will be more vulnerable than others, such as low income communities, which are disproportionately communities of color, and Indigenous peoples, and are likely to bear the brunt of the consequences.

5. The number of people who go hungry each day will climb–in the U.S., and abroad. Despite today’s productive farming system, far too many American households struggle to put the food they need on the table. The USDA estimated that around 12 percent of U.S. households were food insecure in 2017 as a result of stagnant wages and other barriers to accessing and affording healthy food. Climate change impacts–including declining productivity, price shocks from extreme weather, and effects on food processing, storage, transportation–could lead to even lower levels of food security in the US and worldwide.

Farmers and rural communities can be part of the climate solution
“While the impacts described in the NCA4 are alarming, compounding effects and certain surprises could make matters even worse than predicted,” DeLong writes.. That’s why it comes as a relief that the report suggests several possible steps forward, including ways in which farmers and rural communities can be part of the climate solution.

As the report notes, transforming our food and farm system can directly reduce emissions (agriculture contributes about 9 percent to the US carbon footprint) and also pull carbon out of the atmosphere and into plants and soil.  Farmers can make these changes happen by adopting complex crop rotations, managed grazing, and many other practices that boost soil health, make farms more resilient to extreme weather, and solve other problems (for example, with water and energy) along the way.

Some pioneering farmers are already adopting new practices and seeing benefits. But many more will have to join in to avoid the worst climate impacts. And in order to shift practices at the required scale, we must ensure farmers and ranchers have the support, tools, and know-how they need. While the NCA4 doesn’t take the step of making policy recommendations, one thing seems clear: setting farmers up for success will set us all up for a brighter future.