EarthquakesBe Prepared: It Is Impossible to Predict an Earthquake

Published 15 November 2021

In earthquake-prone developed countries like Japan and New Zealand, even severe earthquakes cause very few deaths – they are mainly stories of economic loss. Earthquakes without Frontiers (EwF) supported physical and social scientists in eight U.K. universities and institutes working to increase resilience to earthquakes in Asian countries. But throughout much of the Mediterranean—Middle East–Central Asia earthquake belt, earthquakes here will kill tens, or hundreds of thousands of people.

Earthquakes without Frontiers (EwF) supported physical and social scientists in eight U.K. universities and institutes working to increase resilience to earthquakes in Asian countries.

It used collaborative research to improve knowledge of earthquake hazard, and used this to increase in-country capability through training in modern earthquake science. It helped lead to the retrofitting of buildings and development of new building codes, resulting in safer and more resilient buildings. It improved hazard assessment and city development planning to reduce earthquake risk. And it empowered in-country scientists, leading to improved public safety policy and a shift in the political understanding of managing earthquake risk.

International Rumblings
In 2009 in L’Aquila, a city about 60 miles northeast of Rome, a severe earthquake killed over 300 people and left 60,000 homeless. In 2011 six Italian scientists and a government official were put on trial for manslaughter, with the prosecution alleging they had not properly communicated the risk of such a major earthquake occurring. They were found guilty and each sentenced to six years in prison and a huge fine. Following international outrage, the convictions were overturned on appeal two years later.

Professor James Jackson has spent his career studying earthquakes. He can tell you how the Earth’s continents are deforming, on scales from single fault lines to vast continental areas. Using space-based techniques combined with geological investigations he can identify where earthquakes will happen, how big they’ll be, and how long the shaking will last. But what he can’t do is predict when they’re going to occur – nobody can.

“We took the scientists from L’Aquilla to other countries at risk of earthquakes, including Kazakhstan, for them to tell the local politicians: ‘if you allow the public to believe you can predict earthquakes, this is what will happen’. That had a real impact,” says Jackson, in the University’s Department of Earth Sciences.

In earthquake-prone developed countries like Japan and New Zealand, even severe earthquakes cause very few deaths – they are mainly stories of economic loss. The design of buildings in these countries is regulated to ensure they are as earthquake-proof as possible, in preparation for the unexpected.

But throughout much of the Mediterranean—Middle East–Central Asia earthquake belt, buildings are of low quality and have not been managed through building codes in the same way. Towns and cities near active faults are experiencing rapid population growth and urban development. Earthquakes here will kill tens, or hundreds of thousands of people.