QUICK TAKE // BY BEN FRANKELGeography is Destiny: Ukraine’s Options Are Limited
Russia is much stronger militarily than Ukraine. When Russia suffered setbacks on the battlefield, it never hesitated to launch massive, indiscriminate, and destructive attacks on the civilian population and infrastructure, as was demonstrated in the two Chechnya wars. If there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia, one way or another, will win it. This is important to note as the crisis over Ukraine deepens, and as many – too many – voices in the West are, in effect, urging Ukraine: “You fight Russia, and we’ll hold your coat.” This is a cavalier, and likely exceedingly costly, advice.
Say what you will about Vladimir Putin, but one thing is not in doubt: Over the last two decades, he has presided over the modernization and significant improvement of Russia’s armed forces.
As Michael Evans writes in The Times, when Putin assumed Russia’s leadership on 7 May 2000, his first ambition was to revive and rebuild the military, making it clear that he wanted Russia once again to be a force to be reckoned with.
This is important to note as the crisis over Ukraine deepens, and as many – too many – voices in the West are, in effect, urging Ukraine: “You fight Russia, and we’ll hold your coat.”
This is a cavalier, and likely exceedingly costly, advice.
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Russia-Ukraine Armed Forces: A Comparison
Combat troops:
Russia: 900,000 (Army: 280,000; Navy: 150,000; Airforce: 165,000; Other*: 305,000)
Ukraine: 204,000 (Army: 145,000; Navy: 11,000; Airforce: 45,000; Other**: 3,000)
* Russia: Strategic Rocket Force, Airborne, Special Operational Forces, Railway Force, Cammand and Support, Paramilitary
** Ukraine: Airborne, Special Operation Forces, Paramilitary
Reserve
Russia: 2,000,000
Ukraine: 900,000
Main battle tanks
Russia: 2,840
Ukraine: 858
Artillery
Russia: 4,684
Ukraine: 1,818
Combat aircraft
Russia: 1,160
Ukraine: 125
Attack helicopters
Russia: 394
Ukraine: 0
Frigates
Russia: 15
Ukraine: 1
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In the last twenty years, the Russian military has not only improved the equipment it develops and deploys — it has also substantially changed its military structure, organization, and doctrine.
First, the Russian army was converted from an organization which relied on underpaid, badly equipped conscripts into a largely professional volunteer force of 400,000 soldiers, who receive much better wages and much better training.
Second, the Russian military now has a much more professional officer class – motivated, disciplined, and well-compensated.
Third, the Russian armed forces are now structured around high readiness “tactical groups,” that is, multiple battalions trained in combined-arms operations and able to operate independently or as part of a larger force.
The results of these changes and improvements were evident in the Russian operations in Georgia in 2008; Crimea in 2014; eastern Ukraine since 2014; and in Syria since 2015.
Military leaders and analysts in other countries have noticed the improvements.
“The compliment that we have to pay to Russia is that they are a learning and adaptive force,” General Philip Breedlove, a former NATO supreme allied commander Europe from 2013-2016, told The New York Times. “Every time we see them in conflict, they get a little better and a little better,” he said.
