WORLD ROUNDUPHow Strong Is China’s Rare-Earth Card? | Israel and Iran Usher in New Era of Psychological Warfare | How Allies Have Responded to Limited U.S. Retrenchment, and more

Security Experts Are “Losing Their Minds” Over an FAA Proposal  (Isaac Stanley-Becker, The Atlantic)
The Trump administration is considering hiring foreigners as air traffic controllers.

Neo-Nazis and Black Extremists “Forming Antisemitic Alliances”  (Matt Dathan, The Times)
Neo-Nazis are forging alliances with black extremist groups over a shared hatred of Jews, posing a growing threat to UK national security, research has warned. Antisemitism is emerging as an ideological “glue” binding white and black nationalists, according to a report that calls for a change in the way extremism is combated because ideologies no longer fit traditional far-right or Islamist profiles. Dr Ariel Koch, a fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), described the phenomenon as “bridge hate” —a tactical alliance between racial supremacists who would otherwise be ideological enemies.

Balancing Act —How Allies Have Responded to Limited U.S. Retrenchment  (Miranda Priebe et. Al., RAND)
During President Donald Trump’s second term, his administration indicated a desire to retrench militarily from Europe and possibly elsewhere to promote greater allied burden-sharing. Assessing whether this change would advance U.S. interests involves considering several possible effects: the behavior of U.S. rivals, regional stability, U.S. defense budgets, and the behavior of U.S. allies. In this analysis, RAND researchers focus on the last of these effects: the behavior of U.S. allies.

Countering Russian Influence: Support for Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova in the ‘Waiting Room of the West’ (John Kennedy and William Dunbar, RAND)
As Europe rallies to support Ukraine’s defense and fortify its own security, three other post-Soviet states—Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova—remain dangerously exposed to Russian coercion. Each has expressed a desire to move closer to the West: Moldova and Georgia are official EU candidates, and all three participate in the European Union’s Eastern Partnership. Yet despite these aspirations, their chances of joining the European Union in the short term are slim. In this “waiting room”posture, their situation is precarious: it is precisely their orientation towards Europe and NATO that increases their vulnerability to Russian pressure, subversion, and, in some cases, military aggression.
While a full-scale invasion like that in Ukraine may not be imminent, Russian efforts to destabilize these states are already underway. In Georgia, once a regional reform leader, a pro-Russian slide has accelerated under an increasingly authoritarian government, despite overwhelming public support for EU membership. In Moldova, fragile democratic institutions and the unresolved Transnistria conflict leave the country exposed to disinformation and electoral interference. In Armenia, the aftermath of the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has created fertile ground for pro-Russian political actors, who seek to capitalize on insecurity and thwart the country’s Western shift.

Israel and Iran Usher in New Era of Psychological Warfare  (Steven Lee MyersNatan Odenheimer and Erika Solomon, New York Times)
Over 12 days of attacks, Israel and Iran turned social media into a digital battlefield, using deception and falsehoods to try to sway the outcome even as they traded kinetic missile strikes that killed hundreds and roiled an already turbulent Middle East. The posts, researchers said, represented a greater intensity of information warfare, by beginning before the strikes, employing artificial intelligence and spreading widely so quickly.

Israel’s “Tribal” Approach in Gaza: A Short-Term Response to a Long-Term Challenge  (Neomi Neumann, Washington Institute)
Amid military operations in Gaza and parallel ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, one critical question has yet to be sufficiently answered: Who will govern the Strip the “day after”Hamas? Israel’s military campaign has degraded the group’s conventional capabilities and turned it into an underground guerrilla force, but no clear alternative has emerged to replace its governance functions. In this vacuum, Israel has been engaging with local tribal actors as part of an improvised effort aimed primarily at undermining Hamas, with the additional objectives of stabilizing the area and enabling humanitarian aid distribution.

The Wheels Are Falling Off Netanyahu’s Government  (Yair Rosenberg, The Atlantic)
The Israeli leader has been alienating his allies and is spiraling toward early elections.

Hackers Are Finding New Ways to Hide Malware in DNS Records  (Dan Goodin, Ars Technica / Wired)
Newly published research shows that the domain name system—a fundamental part of the web—can be exploited to hide malicious code and prompt injection attacks against chatbots.

How Strong Is China’s Rare-Earth Card? (Christina Lu, Foreign Policy)
Washington is making big moves, but Beijing has a powerful hand.