QUICK TAKES // By Ben FrankelFive Comments on the Evolving Situation in Ukraine
Russia’s initial tactical approach was flawed, but it appears that corrections are being made. This is not good news for Ukraine and the Ukrainians, because Russia is reverting to fighting as Russia typically fights, and the civilians on the other side are those who typically pay the price.
Five quick comments on the evolving situation in Ukraine:
1) Flawed Russian Tactic
In every large military operation, there are problems of coordination, organization, logistics, and intelligence. This is the operational level of war.
The other two levels – the strategic and tactical – should be of more interest.
Leaving aside the broader discussion of international law, morality, and political character, Russia did have the right strategic approach: Try to capture Ukraine and install a friendly regime in Kiev without inflicting Chechnya-levels death and destruction on Ukraine. Killing tens of thousands of civilians, and reducing major cities to rubble – and doing all that to people Putin describes as “brothers”; to a country in central Europe; and at a time when every atrocity would be broadcast live to the whole world – was not something Putin wanted to do.
This right strategic approach, however, has led to flawed tactical approach, which has allowed the under-gunned Ukrainian to inflict heavier blows on the Russian forces.
The three tactical flaws hobbling the Russian operation:
· Russia’s military doctrine calls for using enormous amounts of fire, indiscriminately – by artillery, short-range missiles, and from the air – in order to “prep” the battlefield and kill or disperse the opposition — and the population supporting it. The Russians have so far abstained from following this tenet in Russia’s military doctrine.
· Russian forces have moved on too many targets at once, and did so too fast, rather than concentrate their forces on 3-4 major cities. This has created many problems for Russia: Too many units are too small, dispersed, and exposed; it is a logistical problem to keep supplying these widely dispersed forces with the required ammo, fuel, and food – and the supply convoys themselves become easy targets for the resistance.
· The dispersal of forces has prevented Russia from concentrating sufficient forces around the big cities of Ukraine, which should have been the main targets of the Russian opposition to begin with.
In the last two days we have seen Russia change its tactics, if only in a limited fashion so far: Russian forces have begun to use artillery barrages and short-range missiles, including against residential neighborhoods in Kharkiv and Leviv, and Russia has been pulling forces from small towns and hamlets and sending them toward Kiev. These changes will likely make the Russian campaign more effective, but the cost to Ukraine and to the Ukrainians will increase considerably.
