Ukrainians Fear Putin Has Chosen 'Grozny Option'

That view is shared by independent military analysts, including Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a defense think tank based in London. “As the situation becomes more volatile and less predictable, escalation may be the only way forward for Putin,” he said in a commentary.

“Putin drastically underestimated Ukraine’s cohesion and will to resist,” he said, adding that the Russian president “has every incentive to end the war as quickly as possible.”

“There are two ways he could do this. The first, which he has now begun to try, is to win the war through drastic escalation. But the meaning of victory is now less clear than ever. While Russia can occupy Ukraine at great human cost, no Russian puppet regime it installs will be legitimate or stable. Russia’s international isolation and domestic crisis will intensify.

“The second is for Putin to scale back his goals and negotiate a peace short of regime change in Kyiv,” said Gould-Davies. “But given Putin’s obsession with Ukraine and the stakes he has raised; this would be a humiliating setback that he would consider only if his own regime’s survival were in doubt.”

The military analyst is not alone in thinking that a war of choice by Putin has potentially morphed into a war of necessity, and for his own political survival.

In the nine days of the invasion, Russian forces have managed only to seize one city so far. That’s the strategically important Black Sea port of Kherson, home to 300,000 people, where Moscow claims Russian forces control government buildings as part of their effort to cut Ukraine off from the sea via its key southern ports. Russia’s claims have not been confirmed.

Seizing Kherson gives Russian forces access to the mainland from Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and to establish a land corridor linking Moscow’s two breakaway regions in the Donbas with Crimea. It also allows Russian troops to tighten their siege of Mariupol.

Midweek, Kherson’s Mayor Igor Kolykhayev confirmed Russian troops had forced their way into the city. But there are still local reports of sporadic fighting, although the local TV tower has been seized and the Russians already are broadcasting from it, say locals who have been cut off from Ukrainian channels.

Ukrainian intelligence officials say Russian troops are preparing to stage scenes of their forces being greeted as heroes, with people being moved in from Crimea as “extras.”

“When Russians can’t achieve real goals, they focus on fake TV coverage,” tweeted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

“Having seized a TV tower in Kherson, they plan a show: Russian troops provide humanitarian aid, while fake ‘locals’ brought in from Crimea stage a fake ‘demo’ in favor of Kherson region ‘uniting’ with Crimea,” he said.

With Kherson fallen, military strategists expect Russian forces now will turn their attention to the major port of Odesa, Ukraine’s third-largest city, 100 kilometers to the west of Kherson. If they can manage to capture Odesa, Ukraine would be cut off from the Black Sea.

Up north, Russian forces are having an even tougher time and have not managed to capture a major city, but attention is focusing on what is happening with a huge armored column 30 kilometers or so north of Kyiv, which has not moved as fast as many expected.

U.S. defense officials and independent military analysts are split on why the column has moved so little for days, with some using the word “stalled” to describe its non-advance and hazarding that the Russians are running short of fuel and supplies. Others are suggesting Russian forces might be in the process of re-grouping in preparation for a major thrust on the Ukrainian capital.

Jamie Dettmer is VOA reporter. This article  is published courtesy of the Voice of America (VOA).