FOOD SECURITYAmid Climate Change and Conflict, More Resilient Food Systems a Must: Report

Increased demand for water will be the No. 1 threat to food security in the next 20 years, followed closely by heat waves, droughts, income inequality and political instability, according to a new CU Boulder-led study which calls for increased collaboration to build a more resilient global food supply.

The report, published today in One Earth, comes as global hunger levels in 2021 surpassed the previous record set in 2020, and acute food insecurity in many countries could continue to worsen this year, according to the United Nations and The World Bank.

These pressing threats are not new: The impacts of political conflict and compounding environmental effects of climate change are already measured and studied around the world. The new study, however, finds that increased collaboration between these areas of research could not only fortify global food security in the face of any one of these threats, but also strengthen it against all of them. 

“We provide strong support for the idea of building more resilient food systems in general, rather than trying to deal with individual problems here and there,” said Zia Mehrabi, lead author on the study, and assistant professor of environmental studies and in the Mortenson Center in Global Engineering. “It doesn’t matter whether it’s a climate, environmental or political shock to the system—if you have resilient systems in place, they’ll be able to deal with all the different kinds of shocks.”

According to a recent analysis by The World Bank, the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, and continued economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic are reversing years of development gains and pushing food prices to all-time highs—working against the United Nations’ goal to end hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. 

In addition, extreme events like heat waves, floods and droughts are on the rise. 

While researchers and policymakers are developing solutions to improve the resilience of food systems, they often work in isolation—tackling one problem at a time. The new study found a great need for increased collaboration and coordination between researchers who study specific threats to food systems, so that decision-makers have comprehensive information, updated models and relevant tools as threats arise. 

Conflict, Climate and Capacity 
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, the researchers surveyed 69 global experts in various fields related to food security. They ranked 32 top food security threats by both their impact and probability over the next two decades.