Nuclear Arms Control Is for Realists | Understanding the Deterrence Gap in the Taiwan Strait | Milei’s Swing into Normality Might Not Last, and more

The United States’ commitment to AI governance is significant given that over the past two decades, global leadership in data-driven technology innovation has become increasingly uncoupled from efforts to regulate that technology. The world’s largest data-driven innovators, such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta, are based in the United States. But the world’s leading data regulators are based in the European Union—for instance, the apex privacy framework, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), was promulgated by the EU. By comparison, the United States has applied a relatively light hand to the regulation of social media and search. Unlike the European Parliament, Congress has passed no comprehensive law that directly touches these data-driven platforms. Indeed, in 1996, when Congress last stepped in, it was to enact a key liability shield (codified as Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act) that allowed social media companies to grow. 

Understanding the Deterrence Gap in the Taiwan Strait  (Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris, War on the Rocks)
What is stopping China from invading Taiwan? In the past, it was overdetermined that Beijing would not use force to compel reunification. Not only did China lack the capabilities to execute a swift and decisive conquest of the island, but China’s leaders since 1979 used to believe that peaceful unification was both possible and vastly more preferable to military solutions. Today, however, the military balance of power has shifted decisively, enabling an amphibious invasion from a capabilities standpoint in the not-too-distant future, while prospects of peaceful unification have faded. As such, it is now something of a conventional wisdom that a Chinese invasion has become more likely than not.
We agree with these pessimistic assessments. Of course, no analyst can say with certainty when or why a war over Taiwan might be triggered. Those who project auras of inevitability are wrong to do so. But the changing geopolitical situation around Taiwan cannot be ignored. It is only because deterrence across the Taiwan Strait was strong that past crises over the island’s political status could unfold without causing an invasion. Now that deterrence has weakened, there are few if any guardrails to prevent current or future crises from escalating to become a full-blown war.

The Real Reason North Korea Is Threatening War  (Ri Jong Ho and David Maxwell, National Interest)
With Kim Jong-un’s recent statements that he considers the Republic of Korea (ROK) the “primary enemy” and no longer seeks peaceful unification, analysts in Korea and the United States are rightly concerned with the possibility that he may conduct an unprecedented provocation or even an attack on the ROK.

Nuclear Arms Control Is for Realists  (Tobias Fella, National Interest)
In 2023, Moscow suspended the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), withdrew from the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), de-ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), linked the resumption of arms control with the United States to a change in U.S.-Russia policy, at least implicitly threatened the use of nuclear weapons and announced the transfer of non-strategic nuclear weapons to Belarus, putting the world on the brink of another Cold War. In addition, the U.S. Congressional Commission on Strategic Posture recommended additional nuclear capabilities to counter a projected increase in Chinese nuclear warheads from 410 today to over 1,500 by 2035. The preparatory meeting of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference in August 2023 also ended without a joint factual summary.
The reasons range from a changed geopolitical climate, the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal, and technological innovations, such as long-range conventional weapons, to domestic political polarization in the United States. Under these conditions, which include an increased interest in nuclear deterrence in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, the first goal of arms control must be to minimize the risk of unintended military escalation, especially between nuclear powers. It should build on positive developments, such as establishing a communication channel between the Russian and U.S. defense ministries in March 2022 and the resumption of U.S.-Chinese military communication in December 2023, preceded by discussions on the dangers of artificial intelligence in nuclear decision-making systems.
The following measures are therefore advisable: restraint in maneuvers, troop movements, and deployment in the NATO-Russia contact zone; steps to prevent an arms race with new INF missiles in Europe; the reaffirmation of the nuclear taboo at the highest political level; the preservation and use of civil society channels for dialogue to capture the drivers behind nuclear build-ups, nuclear rhetoric, and changes in nuclear doctrine; and backward learning from Cold War risk-reduction measures.

Milei’s Swing into Normality Might Not Last  (Jeremiah Johnson, Foreign Policy)
Argentine President Javier Milei is an unusual politician. The former television personality is perhaps the only world leader in generations who would describe himself as a libertarian. He’s certainly the first ever to identify as an “anarcho-capitalist.” He has a fiery disposition and is known for bluntly insulting his opponents. He frequently engages in stunts such as dressing as the superhero “General AnCap” or revving a chain saw in public to show his commitment to slashing the size of government. His proposed policies and statements as he ran for Argentina’s presidency matched his outlandish behavior. He proposed radical market-oriented reforms, the complete elimination of several huge government agencies, and a total break from politics as usual.
Milei is a weird guy, but Argentina is a country with peculiar problems. Since Milei won the election in November, the world has held its collective breath waiting to see what the outlandish, bizarre, extreme candidate would look like as a president. Surprisingly, Milei’s first two months in office have been mostly sensible and promising. But behind the encouraging policy changes, there’s still the potential for a troubling authoritarian turn.
No area sums up the cognitive dissonance that Milei inspires better than climate change. Milei campaigned as a full-blown climate change denier. He said that “politicians who blame the human race for climate change are fake” and called the very idea of climate change a “socialist hoax.” And yet as president, his top climate diplomat confirmed that Argentina will remain in the Paris climate agreement. He even included a new cap-and-trade plan to limit carbon emissions in his omnibus reform bill. Observers could be forgiven for having whiplash—even for Milei, the turnaround on climate has been dramatic. This is hardly the only issue where Milei’s rhetoric and his actions are surprisingly divergent. So how should we judge Milei—by his outlandish campaign statements, or by his restrained actions once in office?

Indonesia Has Grand Ambitions for Its Nickel Industry  (Christina Lu, Foreign Policy)
Long before the energy transition gained momentum around the world, nickel powerhouse Indonesia dreamed of harnessing its mineral riches to transform its economy and wield greater leverage in the international marketplace. 
The global shift away from fossil fuels and the growing demand for the critical minerals powering green technology have turbocharged Jakarta’s ambitions. Nickel is a key component in electric vehicle batteries, yet few countries can claim as big of a stake over the global nickel sector as Indonesia, which is home to some of the world’s biggest nickel reserves and mined half of the global supply in 2022. 
Now, with more than 100 million voters expected to head to the polls on Wednesday to elect Indonesia’s first new president in a decade, the future of Jakarta’s bid is set to come into sharper focus. Current President Joko Widodo, commonly referred to as Jokowi, is set to leave office in October after holding power for a decade—the maximum term length allowed—raising questions about how exactly his successor will continue to shape the country’s booming sector.