The Second Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump in 64 Days Is a Troubling Turn of Events
In February 2023, Routh self-published a book titled Ukraine’s Unwinnable War: The Fatal Flaw of Democracy, World Abandonment and the Global Citizen-Taiwan, Afghanistan, North Korea and the End of Humanity. And in March 2023, he was interviewed by The New York Times for an article with the headline “Stolen Valor: The U.S. Volunteers in Ukraine Who Lie, Waste and Bicker.”
Politics as Warfare
The bigger picture of an apparent second assassination attempt on Trump is how people who are attracted to extremes of political thought feel enabled by the current American political environment.
The evident normalization of political violence can be related to the strong polarization of U.S. voters. A 2022 study by political science professor Alan Abramowitz on the rise of U.S. partisan-ideological consistency and its consequences suggested that a growing number of Americans have come to see politics as a form of warfare. In such circumstances, elections are viewed as contests between the forces of good and evil.
That sentiment was echoed on the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection, when U.S. President Joe Biden delivered remarks about defending the sacred cause of American democracy. He said: “You can’t have a contest if you see politics as an all-out war instead of a peaceful way to resolve our differences. All-out war is what Trump wants.”
The Causes and Impact of Political Assassinations, published in 2015 by the United States Military Academy Combating Terrorism Center, provides some needed perspective on the relationship between political polarization and assassinations.
The study suggests that elections are more effective and peaceful after ensuring the most intense political grievances have been addressed. Unresolved intense political grievances have the potential to instigate further violence, including assassination attempts on politicians.
Bracing for an October Surprise
In American politics, the expression “October surprise” describes “a game-changing event that can irreparably damage one candidate’s chances and boost the other’s, upending a presidential election.
Given the trajectory of this 2024 presidential election season, an October surprise related to political violence could unduly influence electoral outcomes.
Trump politicized the first assassination attempt during the Republican National Convention and his campaign began fundraising on the apparent second assassination attempt within hours. Some of Trump’s allies, including his running mate, JD Vance, have suggested that the July assassination attempt was the inevitable result of hateful Democratic messaging.
Given that there have been two apparent assassination attempts on the Republican presidential candidate, political violence has become a defining characteristic of the 2024 election. It is no longer hyperbolic thinking to consider that an October surprise may involve another assassination attempt.
Jack L. Rozdilsky is Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, Canada. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.
