Beijing’s Changing Invasion Calculus | Latin American Economies Look to China as U.S. Slashes Aid | Germany’s New Government Wants to Be a Foreign Policy Power | China and Russia Are Deploying Powerful New Weapons: Ideas, and more

This strategic picture is growing bleaker with each passing unchallenged rehearsal, as the Chinese Communist Party creates a new normal that favors their aggressive actions. Taiwan, the United States, Japan, Korea, and all nations that benefit from a free and open world order should prepare for the possible eventuality that a Joint Sword exercise or similar rehearsal turns into a wider blockade of Taiwan. It will likely fall on the United States and others to call out these actions for what they are: a blockade of Taiwan and an act of war.
Although American naval forces would likely come into play to counter a blockade, America’s most likely immediate response option is strategic airlift of vital supplies. The successful Berlin Airlift in the earliest phase of the Cold War offers both potential objectives and serious challenges of carrying out such a mission.

Political Discourse, Debate, and Decisionmaking in the Chinese Communist Party  (Howard Wang, RAND)
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) employs a system of coded speech to communicate policy directives to its implementing bureaucracy. This coded speech is governed by rules and exists in a specific cultural context, potentially confounding those unfamiliar with that context. CCP leaders deploy these codes through the party propaganda system to issue policy directives, and the codes take the form of slogans, linguistic formulations, or key phrases, collectively called tifa.

How the U.S. is Pushing the EU Closer to China  (Valbona Zeneli and Zoltán Fehér, National Interest)
Recent defense, trade, and technology moves from Washington give Brussels few choices for dealing with Beijing.

An $8.4 Billion Chinese Hub for Crypto Crime Is Incorporated in Colorado  (Andy Greenberg, Wired)
Before a crackdown by Telegram, Xinbi Guarantee grew into one of the internet’s biggest markets for Chinese-speaking crypto scammers and money laundering. And all registered to a US address.

Chinese Weapons Gave Pakistan a New Edge Against India  (Economist)
America and its allies are now scrambling for details.

Latin American Economies Look to China as U.S. Slashes Aid  (Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy)
In Beijing this week, Colombia joined the Belt and Road Initiative, and Brazil notched key investment pledges.

MIDDLE EAST

The Long Shadow of Syria’s Chemical Weapons  (Anagha Subhash Nair, Foreign Policy)
USAID funding cuts cast doubt on eliminating the country’s stockpile.

Could Iran’s Bavar-373 Air Defense System Take Down an F-35?  (Brandon J. Weichert, National Interest)
Something put the IAF back on its heels after it penetrated Iranian airspace last October. Could it have been Iran’s new domestic missile system?

The Threat of Inaction in Response to Violations of International Law: A Syrian Case Study  (Elisabeth Baer, Small Wars Journal)
Since its beginning in 2011, the Syrian civil war has led to approximately half a million deaths and left an estimated 16.7 million people, 70 percent of Syria’s population, in need of humanitarian aid. It is one of the largest displacement crises in the world, with over 14 million people affected. What had started in 2011 as a peaceful protest against the government of President Bashar al-Assad quickly escalated into armed clashes and, within a couple of months, grew into a large-scale militarized rebellion. In the years that followed, allegations and evidence of crimes against humanity, war crimes, and violations of international law perpetrated by the government of Syria began to amass. Perhaps most atrocious among these are the claims of Syria’s repeated use of chemical weapons (CW) against its own citizens. Now, with the recent fall of Assad’s administration on 8 December 2024 and his subsequent escape to Russia, questions remain about the future of Syria and whether the perpetrators of the Assad government’s actions will be brought to justice.

The continued failure to prosecute Assad and his senior officials threatens to undermine international law and the Western-led rules-based order. The situation in Syria, therefore, serves as an excellent case study of the international community’s ineffective response to war crimes and violations of international law. It demonstrates a fundamental weakness in the enforceability of international statutes, highlights the dangers of the lack of substantive action, and threatens to cause irreparable damage to the standing of the US and its allies on the world stage. To address this dangerous precedent, it is crucial to understand the structural and geopolitical factors limiting both past and potential actions and responses from the international system and consider recommendations for possible solutions to this dangerous precedent.

Israeli Attacks on Syria Risk Destabilizing Jordan  (Burcu Ozcelik,Foreign Policy)
King Abdullah II faces backlash against his country’s peace deal with Israel.

THE LONG VIEW

China and Russia Are Deploying Powerful New Weapons: Ideas  (Economist)
The West is retreating from the battle of the narrative.
One example: Sixty lucky students got the chance to train as journalists last year at African Initiative, a new press agency in Bamako, Mali’s capital. Trainees were given online and in-person lessons in reporting, with the promise that three of them would eventually be hired as full-time staff at the agency. The catch, as reported by Forbidden Stories, a network of investigative journalists, was that African Initiative is run by Russian intelligence.
Many Western countries are winding down their efforts to broadcast to the world. One example: In March President Donald Trump pulled funding for Voice of America and its sister networks, and dismantled USAID, which funded thousands of journalists around the world.

Europeans Have Realized Their Error  (Graeme Wood, The Atlantic)
The urge to say I told you so is strong these days throughout the Baltics.

How to Eliminate a Nation: Russia’s Crime of Extermination in Ukraine  (Susan Farbstein, Just Security)
Ukrainians recently commemorated three years since Russia launched a full-scale invasion against their homeland. Since Feb. 24, 2022, not a single day has passed without what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently described as “aerial terror” inflicted by Russia’s widespread and systematic drone and missile strikes. On Feb. 23, 2025, the eve of the conflict’s anniversary, Russia carried out the single largest drone attack of the war, launching more than 200 drones overnight.
According to the latest United Nations report, in these three years, 12,654 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, including 673 children, and 29,392 more have been injured as a result of Russia’s invasion. In addition to the staggering civilian toll, Russia’s persistent aerial attacks have destroyed 80 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and damaged or destroyed at least 1,300 healthcare facilities, 3,800 educational institutions, and 250,000 buildings housing about 3.4 million people.
Despite clear evidence that Russia is violating international law, meaningful accountability for aerial attacks—critical to countering propaganda and securing justice for victims—may be difficult to obtain. This challenge is not unique to Ukraine. To date, no international tribunal has held individual perpetrators liable for war crimes or crimes against humanity resulting from unlawful drone and missile attacks. But it is possible.

Why This India-Pakistan Conflict Is Different  (Vaibhav Vats, The Atlantic)
India and Pakistan are fueling each other’s extremism without an off-ramp in sight.

Nigeria Has More People without Electricity Than Any Other Country  (Economist)
Fixing that will be fiendishly difficult.

MORE PICKS

Germany’s New Government Wants to Be a Foreign Policy Power  (Gabriele Abels, The Conversation)
When the CDU/CSU and the SPD sealed their coalition agreement to form the next German government, the would-be chancellor Friedrich Merz proudly announced: “Germany is back on track”. Against a backdrop of considerable geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges, the partners wanted to send clear signal not only to the German public, but also to the European and international partners. After three years of intense government infighting, a new, stable administration was in charge in Germany.

Would Vladimir Putin Attack NATO?  (Economist)
Russia is building up its forces, causing fear in its neighbors.

JD Vance Says Russia Has Asked for Territory It Hasn’t Won  (Gregory Svirnovskiy, Politico)
‘We knew that the Russians’ first offer would be too much,’ he said of the demands on Ukraine.

Trump’s Russia-Ukraine Deal Will Be Null and Void  (Duncan B. Hollis, Foreign Policy)
International law nullifies any treaty coerced by force—like Moscow has deployed since 2014.

What Putin Wants—and How Europe Should Thwart Him  (Economist)
Many Europeans are complacent about the threat Russia poses—and misunderstand how to deter its president.

A Tale of Four Fighter Jets  (Rishi Iyengar, Foreign Policy)
The aircraft India and Pakistan use to strike each other tell a story of key geopolitical shifts.

Reshaping Turkish Politics: Erdogan’s Bet on a Kurdish Opposition?  (Loqman Radpey, Lawfare)
Erdoğan is preparing to sideline the CHP and replace it with another party.

What Is the Risk of a Conflict Spiral Between India and Pakistan?  (Sumit Ganguly, Foreign Policy)
Officials in New Delhi and Islamabad have remained sanguine, but there is still reason to fear extreme escalation.

Trump’s Russia Strategy Is All Carrots, No Stick  (John Haltiwanger, Foreign Policy)
“The Russians are obviously not responding to the current approach,” one expert said.

U.S. Pushes Nations Facing Tariffs to Approve Musk’s Starlink, Cables Show  (Jeff Stein and Hannah Natanson, Washington Post)
Some countries have turned to the satellite internet firm in conjunction with trade talks, State Department staffers wrote. The U.S. has a strategic interest in countering Chinese internet providers, but Musk’s role complicates the picture.