WATER SECURITYOvershadowed by Border Dispute, India-Pakistan Water Security Risks Grow
Glacial meltwater accounts for a significant portion of annual flows in the Indus River Basin, but as glaciers retreat due to climate change, this flow is decreasing, leading to water scarcity. Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to reduction in Indus River Basin flows: it relies on the Indus River for more than 90 percent of its water, and is already grappling with severe water shortages.
A disputed India-Pakistan border in Kashmir isn’t the only threat to stability on the subcontinent. One that’s often overlooked is water security.
India and Pakistan should incorporate transboundary watery cooperation into broader security dialogues to deescalate tensions, build cooperation and resilience, and ensure that water-sharing agreements are insulated from geopolitical fictions.
This can help the region safeguard against future tensions just as climate impacts strain access across the Indus River Basin.
These waters are shared by Pakistan (47 percent), India (39 percent), China (8 percent) and Afghanistan (6 percent). They all depend on the river for agriculture, drinking water and hydropower.
The situation is particularly dire for Pakistan, which relies on the Indus River for more than 90 percent of its water and is already grappling with severe water shortages due to both droughts and flooding.
The Indus Water Treaty, which prevented conflict by regulating water distribution, has historically insulated water security from Pakistan’s fraught relationships with upstream nations, particularly India and China. Yet changing water availability challenges the treaty’s efficacy.
Several concurrent climate drivers are at play, which have already challenged disaster response capabilities, complicating long-term adaptation. This includes a near-term acceleration and eventual loss in glacial melt flows; shifting monsoon patterns that have contributed to severe floods; and drought conditions exacerbated by those dynamics.
Glacial meltwater accounts for a significant portion of annual flows in the Indus River Basin in the dry season. As global temperatures rise, glaciers in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush ranges melt at an accelerated rate, leading to short-term abundance in water. As glaciers retreat due to climate change, this flow will eventually decrease, leading to long-term water scarcity. Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to severe water shortages that could result from this.
In addition to glacial melt, the basin also relies heavily on the seasonal monsoons to recharge its water reserves. However, climate change has caused shifts in monsoon patterns, leading to more erratic and intense rainfall. This has contributed to more severe floods, particularly in Pakistan, where the Indus River frequently overflows, causing widespread damage to crops, infrastructure and human settlements. For example, the 2010 floods in Pakistan were among the worst in the country’s history, affecting 20 million people and causing more than US$19 billion in damage.
