How Might Israel Attack Iran’s Underground Nuclear Plant? A 2024 Raid in Syria Could e a Template
Only the US, with 30,000lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator bomb caried by the B-2 stealth bomber is reckoned to have the capability to inflict lasting damage on these underground nuclear facilities. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has appealed to the US president, Donald Trump, for help in destroying these nuclear assets. Trump has said he is still considering his decision.
Operation Many Ways
US help is clearly Netanyahu’s main option for neutralizing these underground plants. But don’t rule out a ground attack by Israeli special forces. A template for how Israel might deal with Fordow was revealed last year.
Launched on 8 September 2024, operation Many Ways destroyed an underground missile facility that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps had built into a mountainside in the Masyaf area of Syria, just west of Hama and around 125 miles north of the disputed Golan Heights. This facility was responsible for producing sophisticated surface-to-surface missiles for use by Hezbollah as well as by the regime of Bashar al-Asad, Iran’s ally.
After months of surveillance, 200 soldiers from the Shaldag (Kingfisher) special forces unit of the Israeli Air Force were helicoptered to the site under the cover of a series of diversionary airstrikes. The surprise attack quickly overwhelmed defensive forces and used around 600kg of explosives to destroy the underground facility. The unit also collected a considerable amount of intelligence documents which they transferred back to Israel. There were no Israeli casualties.
Greater Risk
Would Israel risk a similar operation against Fordow? The risks undoubtedly are far greater. The operation would have to be carried out at a much longer range – the enrichment facility is more than 1,000kms from Israel.
Such an operation would need to involve far more troops than operation Many Ways. And the operational requirement to ensure sufficient air-to-air refueling capacity for the air force’s heavy lift “Yasur” helicopters would add a layer of logistical complexity.
But the IDF’s ability to innovate around the use of longer-range C130 transport aircraft that can land in rough areas should not be underestimated. They showed this as long ago as 1976 when mounting the famous hostage rescue mission at Entebbe in Uganda.
Also on the plus side for Israel is its air superiority. The country is also a leader in electronic counter warfare measures which would allow it to blind or jam Iranian communications.
But while the Iranian armed forces have suffered heavy blows, the ground defenses around Fordow will still be formidable. To gain access to and destroy the centrifuges widely believed to be at Fordow with sufficient explosives runs the risks of heavy casualties on all sides. So the calculation Israel’s military planners would have to make is the strategic gain relative to the cost in blood.
Yet given Fordow has long been recognized by Israel as the jewel in Iran’s nuclear crown this too might be another gamble Netanyahu is willing to take in a war that, whatever its outcome, is already reshaping much of the Middle East.
Clive Jones is Professor of Regional Security, Durham University. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.
