It’s Official: America Can’t Be Trusted | How Rare Earths Became China’s Top Trade Weapon | How Europe Got Tough on Migration | BRICS Is Sliding Towards Irrelevance, and more

Plans to Relocate Gazans to a “Humanitarian City” Look Like a Crime Against Humanity – International Law Expert  (James Sweeney, The Conversation)
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are refusing to implement a government plan to move hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into a what it calls a “humanitarian city” in Rafah on Gaza’s southern border with Egypt. Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, chief of the IDF general staff said the plan was not part of the military’s operational plan for destroying Hamas and freeing the remaining hostages.
Army reservists have reportedly also complained that the plan amounts to a war crime. In my view as an expert in international law, they are correct. Forcibly relocating a population is prohibited, even in war. It is also a crime against humanity and could even amount, under certain circumstances, to genocide.

Israel Is Growing More Dependent on a Less Sympathetic United States  (Leon Hadar, National Interest)
The longtime pro-Israel bipartisan consensus in American politics is fading—precisely at the moment Israel needs it most.

Why Israeli Attacks Brought Fear but Not Regime Change to Iran  (Javad Heiran-Nia and Hessam Habibi Doroh, Stimson Venter)
Despite the military pressure and the temporary destabilization of Iranian state structures during the 12-day war, public support for externally driven regime change failed to materialize. Several sociological mechanisms explain this. Iran’s strong sense of national identity, deeply shaped by collective memories of foreign intervention, fosters public opposition to external interference. During World War II, despite Iran’s declared neutrality, Allied forces occupied the country, forcing Shah Reza Pahlavi to abdicate. Post-war Soviet reluctance to withdraw from northern Iran and support for separatist movements have also left enduring scars on the national psyche.

After War with Israel and U.S., Iran Rests on a Knife Edge  (Roger Cohen, New York Times)
The Islamic Republic limps on after the 12-day conflict. Where will the nation go from here?

THE LONG VIEW

Iran Security Risk to the U.K. Now Equal to that of Russia  (Fiona Hamilton, The Times)
Iranian agents are intent on wreaking havoc in the UK through assassinations, kidnapping and cyber attacks, parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee warns.

It’s Official: America Can’t Be Trusted  (Christian Caryl,Foreign Policy)
Flip-flops, uncertainty, and the Pentagon’s freelancing on weapons aid leave Ukraine and European allies in the lurch.

BRICS Is Sliding Towards Irrelevance –the Rio Summit Made That Clear  (Amalendu Misra, The Conversation)
The Brics group of nations has just concluded its 17th annual summit in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro. But, despite member states adopting a long list of commitments covering global governance, finance, health, AI and climate change, the summit was a lacklustre affair.

Iran’s Collapse Could Cause a Nuclear Security Nightmare  (Eric Brewer and Scott Roecker, Foreign Policy)
Washington would struggle to secure dangerous materials, technologies, and expertise.

Ranking the Strongmen  (Ramachandra Guha, Foreign Policy)
In an era defined by vanity, the U.S. president outdoes all his populist peers.

A Peace Agreement That Will Probably Not Bring Peace (Economist)
The truce signed by Congo and Rwanda leaves out some important details.

How Europe Got Tough on Migration  (Emma Bubola and Jeanna Smialek, New York Times)
The European Union has not gone as far as President Trump in cracking down on immigration, but its shift is already profound.

MORE PICKS

Denmark Finalizes U.S. Defense Deal Despite Greenland Gripes  (Teri Schultz, DW)
President Trump refuses to rule out forcibly annexing Greenland. Yet the Danish parliament has just passed a law allowing the US military free access to bases. Why?

U.K. and France Sign First Nuclear Pact to Fend Off Threat to Europe  (Mark Landler and Michael D. Shear, New York Times)
At a summit on Thursday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron also announced a “one in, one out” pilot program on migrants crossing the English Channel.

Coups in West Africa Have Five Things in Common: Knowing What They Are Is Key to Defending Democracy  (Salah Ben Hammou, The Conversation)
August 2025 makes it five years since Malian soldiers ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta in a coup d’état. While the event reshaped Mali’s domestic politics, it also marked the beginning of a broader wave of military takeovers that swept parts of Africa between 2020 and 2023.
Soldiers have toppled governments in Niger, Burkina Faso (twice), Sudan, Chad, Guinea and Gabon.
The return of military coups shocked many observers. Once thought to be relics of the cold war, an “extinct” form of regime change, coups appeared to be making a comeback.
No new coups have taken place since Gabon’s in 2023, but the ripple effects are far from over. Gabon’s coup leader, Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema, formally assumed the presidency in May 2025. In doing so he broke promises that the military would step aside from politics. In Mali, the ruling junta dissolved all political parties to tighten its grip on power.
Across the affected countries, military rulers remain entrenched. Sudan, for its part, has descended into a devastating civil war following its coup in 2021.
Analysts often cite weak institutions, rising insecurity, and popular frustration with civilian governments to explain coups. While these factors play a role, they don’t capture the patterns we have observed.

The Philippines May Turn Its Back on the U.S. Again  (Derek Grossman,Foreign Policy)
Presidential rival Sara Duterte could step into her father’s foreign policy footsteps.

The Real Trouble with Americas Flip-Flop on Ukrainian Weapons  (Nancy A. Youssef, The Atlantic)
The Trump administration has deprived Kyiv of one thing it desperately needs: predictable support.

Rwanda Exercises Command and Control over M23 Rebels, Say UN Experts  (Michelle Nichols, Reuters)
Rwanda has exercised command and control over M23 rebels during their advance in eastern Congo, gaining political influence and access to mineral-rich territory, according to a confidential report by a group of United Nations experts. The report obtained by Reuters details training which the experts say Rwanda has provided to M23 recruits and military equipment they say Rwanda has deployed - notably “high-tech systems capable of neutralizing air assets” - to give the rebels “a decisive tactical advantage” over Congo’s beleaguered army. The report was submitted to the U.N. Security Council sanctions committee for Congo in early May and is due to be published shortly, said diplomats.
M23 has advanced in eastern Congo, seizing the region’s two largest cities, Goma and Bukavu in January and February. Congo, the United Nations and Western powers say Rwanda is supporting M23 by sending troops and arms.

Refugees Worry: Is Nicaragua Assassinating Government Critics in Costa Rica?  (Frances Robles, New York Times)
After a Nicaraguan human rights activist who had fled to Costa Rica was killed, concern has grown that the Ortega government may be targeting its enemies abroad.

USAID Cuts May Cause 14 Million More Deaths in Next Five Years, Study Says  (Kelsey Ables, Washington Post)
The analysis, published in the Lancet, estimates the agency’s programs saved 91 million lives worldwide over two decades, playing a vital role in global health.