WORLD ROUNDUP – 14-20 JULY 2025How Strong Is China’s Rare-Earth Card? | Is Japan About to Lurch to the Right? | Energy and the Global Center of Gravity | How Allies Have Responded to Limited U.S. Retrenchment, and more

Published 20 July 2025

CHINA WATCH

·  How Strong Is China’s Rare-Earth Card?

·  Chinese Engagement with Africa

·  China and Europe’s Savage Squabble

·  China’s Insertion into India-Pakistan Waters Dispute Adds a Further Ripple in South Asia

·  Chinese Bankers Are at the Center of Global Crime

·  The Philippines Is a Petri Dish for Chinese Disinformation

MIDDLE EAST

·  I’m a Genocide Scholar. I Know It When I See It.

·  Israel and Iran Usher in New Era of Psychological Warfare

·  Israel’s “Tribal” Approach in Gaza: A Short-Term Response to a Long-Term Challenge

·  The Wheels Are Falling Off Netanyahu’s Government

·  After Iran, the Houthis Should Be Enemy No. 1

·  Europeans Threaten to Reimpose Tough U.N. Nuclear Sanctions on Iran

·  Iranian Ransomware Group Offers Bigger Payouts for Attacks on Israel, US 

·  Delisting Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: Implications for U.S. Counterterrorism and Syria Policy

 

THE LONG VIEW

·  Balancing Act —How Allies Have Responded to Limited U.S. Retrenchment

·  Countering Russian Influence: Support for Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova in the ‘Waiting Room of the West’

·  The Enshittification of American Power

·  Britain Has a Rare Opportunity to Lure American Talent

·  Energy and the Global Center of Gravity

·  Rich Countries Stockpiling Critical Minerals Is Not a Plan

 

MORE PICKS

·  Japan Upper House Election: Is Country About to Lurch to the Right? 

·  How Putin Humiliated Trump

·  Former Mexican President Investigated Over Allegedly Taking Bribes from Spyware Industry

CHINA WATCH

How Strong Is China’s Rare-Earth Card? (Christina Lu, Foreign Policy)
Washington is making big moves, but Beijing has a powerful hand.

Chinese Engagement with Africa  (Oluwatimilehin Sotubo, Cortez A. Cooper III, RAND)
A decline in relations between the West and Africa at the end of the Cold War and the drop in Western approval because of undemocratic practices and human rights abuses in African countries have created an avenue for China to expand its relationships with African countries. While the West attached conditions to loans and assistance offered to African countries, China presented a no-strings-attached alternative, which only required African nations to respect China’s core sovereignty interests. China has also taken advantage of disinvestment by Western companies in Africa to increase its investments. Chinese economic engagement declined in the second half of the 2010s but is now enjoying a revitalization. This economic engagement has paved the way for greater political and security engagements with African countries.

China and Europe’s Savage Squabble  (Economist)
Tensions are high ahead of a big summit next week.

China’s Insertion into India-Pakistan Waters Dispute Adds a Further Ripple in South Asia  (Pintu Kumar Mahla, The Conversion)
With the future of a crucial water-sharing treaty between India and Pakistan up in the air, one outside party is looking on with keen interest: China.
For 65 years, the Indus Waters Treaty has seen the two South Asian rivals share access and use of the Indus Basin, a vast area covered by the Indus River and its tributaries that also stretches into Afghanistan and China.
For much of that history, there has been widespread praise for the agreement as a successful demonstration of cooperation between adversarial states over a key shared resource. But experts have noted the treaty has long held the potential for conflict. Drafters failed to factor in the effects of climate change, and the Himalayan glaciers that feed the rivers are now melting at record rates, ultimately putting at risk the long-term sustainability of water supply. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict over Kashmir, where much of the basin is situated, puts cooperation at risk.

Chinese Bankers Are at the Center of Global Crime  (Giovanni Legorano, Foreign Policy)
China’s underground financiers have specialized in international money laundering.

The Philippines Is a Petri Dish for Chinese Disinformation  (Nick Aspinwall, Foreign Policy)
Inauthentic accounts linked to China are seizing on local political feuds.