How Strong Is China’s Rare-Earth Card? | Is Japan About to Lurch to the Right? | Energy and the Global Center of Gravity | How Allies Have Responded to Limited U.S. Retrenchment, and more

MIDDLE EAST

I’m a Genocide Scholar. I Know It When I See It.  (Omer Bartov, New York Times)
My inescapable conclusion has become that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian people. Having grown up in a Zionist home, lived the first half of my life in Israel, served in the I.D.F. as a soldier and officer and spent most of my career researching and writing on war crimes and the Holocaust, this was a painful conclusion to reach, and one that I resisted as long as I could. But I have been teaching classes on genocide for a quarter of a century. I can recognize one when I see one.
This is not just my conclusion. A growing number of experts in genocide studies and international law have concluded that Israel’s actions in Gaza can only be defined as genocide.

Israel and Iran Usher in New Era of Psychological Warfare  (Steven Lee MyersNatan Odenheimer and Erika Solomon, New York Times)
Over 12 days of attacks, Israel and Iran turned social media into a digital battlefield, using deception and falsehoods to try to sway the outcome even as they traded kinetic missile strikes that killed hundreds and roiled an already turbulent Middle East. The posts, researchers said, represented a greater intensity of information warfare, by beginning before the strikes, employing artificial intelligence and spreading widely so quickly.

Israel’s “Tribal” Approach in Gaza: A Short-Term Response to a Long-Term Challenge  (Neomi Neumann, Washington Institute)
Amid military operations in Gaza and parallel ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, one critical question has yet to be sufficiently answered: Who will govern the Strip the “day after”Hamas? Israel’s military campaign has degraded the group’s conventional capabilities and turned it into an underground guerrilla force, but no clear alternative has emerged to replace its governance functions. In this vacuum, Israel has been engaging with local tribal actors as part of an improvised effort aimed primarily at undermining Hamas, with the additional objectives of stabilizing the area and enabling humanitarian aid distribution.

The Wheels Are Falling Off Netanyahu’s Government  (Yair Rosenberg, The Atlantic)
The Israeli leader has been alienating his allies and is spiraling toward early elections.

After Iran, the Houthis Should Be Enemy No. 1  (Eran Ortal, National Interest)
The Islamic Republic will watch the US response to the new Houthi attacks carefully, with implications for regional stability.

Europeans Threaten to Reimpose Tough U.N. Nuclear Sanctions on Iran  (Steven Erlanger, New York Times)
“Snapback” sanctions will be triggered by the end of August if Tehran fails to make concrete progress to limit its nuclear program.

Delisting Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: Implications for U.S. Counterterrorism and Syria Policy  (Aaron Y. Zelin, Washington Institute)
More such announcements can be expected in the months ahead as officials continue implementing Trump’s policy, likely including eventual congressional revocation of the Caesar sanctions. The FTO news is also historic because it represents the first time since the September 11 attacks that a jihadist organization was taken off the FTO list without being fully defunct—rather, the group’s fighters and governance apparatus have become key parts of Syria’s transitional government.

THE LONG VIEW

Balancing Act —How Allies Have Responded to Limited U.S. Retrenchment  (Miranda Priebe et. Al., RAND)
During President Donald Trump’s second term, his administration indicated a desire to retrench militarily from Europe and possibly elsewhere to promote greater allied burden-sharing. Assessing whether this change would advance U.S. interests involves considering several possible effects: the behavior of U.S. rivals, regional stability, U.S. defense budgets, and the behavior of U.S. allies. In this analysis, RAND researchers focus on the last of these effects: the behavior of U.S. allies.

Countering Russian Influence: Support for Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova in the ‘Waiting Room of the West’ (John Kennedy and William Dunbar, RAND)
As Europe rallies to support Ukraine’s defense and fortify its own security, three other post-Soviet states—Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova—remain dangerously exposed to Russian coercion. Each has expressed a desire to move closer to the West: Moldova and Georgia are official EU candidates, and all three participate in the European Union’s Eastern Partnership. Yet despite these aspirations, their chances of joining the European Union in the short term are slim. In this “waiting room”posture, their situation is precarious: it is precisely their orientation towards Europe and NATO that increases their vulnerability to Russian pressure, subversion, and, in some cases, military aggression.
While a full-scale invasion like that in Ukraine may not be imminent, Russian efforts to destabilize these states are already underway. In Georgia, once a regional reform leader, a pro-Russian slide has accelerated under an increasingly authoritarian government, despite overwhelming public support for EU membership. In Moldova, fragile democratic institutions and the unresolved Transnistria conflict leave the country exposed to disinformation and electoral interference. In Armenia, the aftermath of the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has created fertile ground for pro-Russian political actors, who seek to capitalize on insecurity and thwart the country’s Western shift.

The Enshittification of American Power  (Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman, Wired)
First Google and Facebook, then the world. Under Trump 2.0, US statecraft is starting to mimic the worst tendencies of Big Tech.

Britain Has a Rare Opportunity to Lure American Talent  (Economist)
Americans like Britain. Ask restless American graduates where they would most like to move, and it often tops the list. So it is no surprise that, as the Trump administration has attacked America’s top universities and slashed funding for research, American interest in British-based science and tech jobs spiked. Britain has a rare opportunity to snap up disillusioned American boffins, as well as global talent that might once have chosen America. Will it seize it?

Energy and the Global Center of Gravity  (Nikolas K. Gvosdev, National Interest)
At some point, energy breakthroughs may begin to shift the global center of gravity and contribute to the de-prioritization of other national interests.

Rich Countries Stockpiling Critical Minerals Is Not a Plan  (Patrick Schröder, Foreign Policy)
Remember the 1973 oil shock?

MORE PICKS

Japan Upper House Election: Is Country About to Lurch to the Right?  (Richard Lloyd Parry, The Times)
A growing number of people in the country are being swayed by the Sanseito party, which has drawn the country to focus on immigration and mass tourism.

How Putin Humiliated Trump  (Jonathan Lemire, The Atlantic)
President Donald Trump is finally taking the fight to Vladimir Putin. Sort of. For now.
Trump’s deference to Russia’s authoritarian leader has been one of the most enduring geopolitical subplots of the past decade. But his frustration with Putin has grown. Last week, the president said the United States was taking “a lot of bullshit” from Putin. Today, he authorized a significant shipment of U.S. defensive weapons to Ukraine via NATO and threatened Russia with new tariffs if the war does not end in 50 days.
The change, though, is not reflective of Trump adopting a new strategic worldview, two White House officials and two outside advisers to the president told me, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Trump did not develop a new fondness for Ukraine or its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. He did not abruptly become a believer in the traditional transatlantic alliances prized by his predecessors as a counterweight to Moscow. Rather, Trump got insulted.