China Is Ditching the Dollar, Fast | Russia Just Attacked NATO. Again. | Brazil’s Historic Conviction | The Promise and Peril of Ethiopia’s New Mega-Dam, and more

Syria’s Foreign Fighters: Strategic Asset or Looming Threat?  (Uran Botobekov, HSToday))
By endorsing the integration of foreign fighters into the Syrian army, President Trump aimed to curb the influence of the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance.” Simultaneously, his decision sets the stage for containing the Salafi-jihadi threat within Syria and across Central Asia and China’s western Xinjiang region. 

RUSSIA’S POLAND INCURSION

The Kremlin’s Plot to kill NATO’s Credibility  (Economist)
The alliance needs an emphatic response to Russian air incursions. Much of this will require spine from President Donald Trump. Despite having promised to end the war in Ukraine in a day, he has let Vladimir Putin lead him by the nose.
The task before Mr. Trump is simple. He must find the words that have long failed him and declare that America will uphold its treaty obligations, and defend its allies. Anything less will invite further aggression, not only from Russia but from autocrats elsewhere. Allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East will draw their own conclusions. The incursion into Poland is a warning. If Russia can violate NATO’s borders with impunity, it will try again, more brazenly and dangerously.

Trump’s Incompetence Has Created the Conditions for More Bloodshed (David Blair and Roland Oliphant, The Telegraph)
Putin’s appetite for risk and his willingness to test NATO have clearly increased.

Russia Just Attacked NATO. Again.  (Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy)
One can only hope that Trump will draw the right conclusion: Coddling Putin leads to disaster.

Now Putin Knows He Can Cross NATO’s Red Lines and Get Away with It (James Crisp, Joe Barnes, James Rothwell, and Pawel Kwiecien, The Telegraph)
Mass drone incursion in Poland poses new challenge to Nato and its allies, as well as asking the key question: what will Trump do about it?

Russia’s Reckless Provocation  (Tom Nichols, The Atlantic)
Whether by accident or malice, the Russians are risking a wider war in Europe.

Russia Tested NATO in Poland. NATO Flunked.  (Phillips Payson O’Brien, The Atlantic)
A drone incursion shows the limits of an alliance without America at its head.

Is NATO Prepared for Autonomous Warfare?  (David Kirichenko, National Interest)
Over three years into the Russia-Ukraine War, the implications for unmanned and autonomous warfare are still unfolding rapidly.

THE LONG VIEW

The Top 10 Trump Administration Foreign-Policy Mistakes  (Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Policy)
So far.
Let’s admit it: It’s hard not to watch a video of a plane crash or a building demolition, and one feels the same disturbing fascination watching the Trump administration’s handling of U.S. foreign policy. We have front-row seats to the greatest voluntary liquidation of a great power’s status and geopolitical influence in modern history: The results are dramatic and alarming, but it’s almost impossible to look away. And it’s been less than eight months.

Brazil’s Historic Conviction  (Oliver Stuenkel, Foreign Policy)
Can the country’s democracy heal from the Bolsonaro era while resisting U.S. intimidation?

Brazil Keeps Telling Trump to Get Lost  (Jack Nicas, New York Times)
Latin America’s largest nation is shaping up as a test case on how to defy President Trump.

The Globalists of MAGA  (David Frum, The Atlantic)
Trump and his followers are forging an international movement devoted to their authoritarian cause.

Right-Wing Influencers Are Turning to Foreign Affairs  (Makena Kelly, Wired)
Conservative creators are increasingly focusing on foreign policy. Whether they’re emissaries from or to the US isn’t always entirely clear.

Strategic Autonomy Is Europe’s Only Choice  (Hugh De Santis, National Interest)
An independent European security structure may be difficult establish, but there is no other alternative to deter Russia.

MORE PICKS

Outlawry in the Caribbean  (Benjamin R. Farley, Foreign Policy)
Trump’s execution of drug smugglers by drone is barbaric even by 19th-century legal standards.

As Sabotage in Europe Mounts, So Do Calls to Retaliate Against Russia  (Lara Jakes, New York Times)
Drones in Poland and GPS jamming attributed to Russia have intensified a debate over whether the West should impose stiffer penalties for such “hybrid warfare.”

Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia  (Franz-Stefan Gady,Foreign Policy)
Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent.

Africa Is Now Calling the Shots  (Ndidi Okonkwo Nwuneli, Foreign Policy)
Governments, civil society, and the private sector are reimagining development away from external interventions.

The Promise and Peril of Ethiopia’s New Mega-Dam (Economist)
It could power the region or plunge it into another conflict.